XRP Weekly Forecast: Week of March 30, 2026

Why does the monthly close matter for XRP?

Monthly closes matter because they confirm or invalidate higher-timeframe trends. If XRP closes the month above key resistance, bull scenarios gain probability for April; if it closes below major support, bear scenarios gain probability. This week’s levels show what to watch.

The week of March 30, 2026 is the final trading week of the month and carries outsized importance for XRP holders and traders. This is the week where the March monthly candle closes, and where higher-timeframe trend confirmation or invalidation occurs. The current regime remains bearish-to-neutral, with XRP consolidating inside a multi-week range following its prolonged correction from the July 2025 high near $3.65. The dominant structure is a descending channel on the two-day and weekly charts, and this week’s close will determine whether XRP exits March with a constructive base or extends its downtrend into Q2.

The expected weekly range sits between $1.15 and $1.55, depending on scenario activation (see scenario matrix below). The base case projects sideways consolidation in the $1.25–$1.45 band, with month-close implications hinging on whether the March candle prints above or below the critical $1.20 support zone. For a complete view of XRP’s longer-term trajectory, visit our XRP price prediction hub.

Weekly Scenario Snapshot

Scenario	Range	Probability	Trigger	Month-Close Impact
Base	$1.25 – $1.45	50%	Holds $1.20 S; rejected at $1.50 R	Neutral; monthly close near $1.30–$1.40 keeps April range-bound
Bull	$1.40 – $1.65	25%	Reclaims $1.50 on volume; BTC recovers above $80K	Constructive; monthly close above $1.50 sets up April recovery attempt
Bear	$1.05 – $1.25	25%	Loses $1.20 support; BTC breaks below $70K	Bearish; monthly close below $1.20 confirms extended downtrend into April

Key Levels Snapshot

Level	Price	Type	Monthly Close Relevance
S1 – Primary Support	$1.20	Support	Must-hold for neutral monthly close
S2 – Deep Support	$1.05 – $1.10	Support	Multi-year trendline; last-resort demand zone
R1 – Immediate Resistance	$1.45 – $1.50	Resistance	Reclaim needed for constructive monthly close
R2 – Trend Resistance	$1.65 – $1.70	Resistance	Descending channel upper bound; bull confirmation
Invalidation	Below $1.05	Scenario Switch	Monthly close below here shifts base case to extended bear for April–May

Catalyst Radar This Week

• Macro: Post-FOMC (March 17–18) positioning; March NFP implications; end-of-quarter rebalancing flows
• Crypto Liquidity: BTC dominance trend; XRP ETF weekly inflow data; funding rates and open interest resets
• XRP-Specific: RLUSD adoption metrics; potential BlackRock XRP ETF filing updates; Ripple IPO speculation; Clarity Act legislative progress

Related Forecasts

• XRP Weekly Forecast Hub
• XRP March 2026 Forecast
• Previous Week (Mar 23) Forecast
• XRP Next Month Forecast

What Changed Since Last Week (Week of Mar 23 → Mar 30)

Structure and Volatility Changes

The week of March 23 saw XRP continue its consolidation within the broader descending channel that has defined price action since Q4 2025. Implied volatility compressed slightly into the week’s close, suggesting that the market is coiling ahead of the monthly candle finish. The key structural development was a successful defense of the $1.20 zone on a daily closing basis, which keeps the base-case scenario intact heading into this week.

The weekly candle printed a doji-like formation, indicating indecision between buyers and sellers at a critical juncture. The descending channel remains the dominant technical structure, and no breakout attempt materialized above the $1.50 resistance cluster. Price remains below the 20-week EMA (approximately $1.65) and 50-week SMA (approximately $1.85), confirming that the intermediate-term trend is still bearish.

Liquidity and Leverage Changes

Open interest on major XRP perpetual contracts has declined approximately 8–12% week-over-week, which typically signals deleveraging after a period of elevated liquidation activity. Funding rates have flattened near neutral after being persistently negative throughout February, suggesting that the aggressive short positioning is unwinding. This shift does not confirm a bullish reversal, but it reduces the probability of a cascading long-liquidation event during this week.

Spot exchange balances for XRP continue to trend lower, reaching multi-year lows. This divergence between declining exchange supply and subdued price action has been a persistent feature of 2026 and is often cited by analysts as a precondition for a supply-squeeze rally once a catalyst materializes. For a deeper exploration of how liquidity dynamics affect XRP’s price, see our XRP sentiment and liquidity analysis.

Delta Box: Week-over-Week Summary

Metric	Week of Mar 23	Change → Mar 30
Weekly Close	~$1.32	Flat to slightly lower
Implied Volatility	Moderate	Compressed ↓
Open Interest	Elevated	Down 8–12% (deleveraging)
Funding Rates	Slightly negative	Flattening toward neutral
Exchange Balances	Multi-year lows	Continued decline
RSI (Weekly)	~28	Stable in oversold territory

XRP Weekly Range Forecast (Week of Mar 30, 2026)

Base Case Range: $1.25 – $1.45

The base case assumes that current market conditions persist without a major external catalyst. XRP holds the $1.20 support zone on a daily closing basis, buyers defend the lower boundary of the consolidation range, and BTC remains range-bound between $70K and $80K. Under this scenario, XRP oscillates within the $1.25–$1.45 range for the week, with the monthly candle closing in the $1.30–$1.40 area. This outcome preserves the neutral-to-bearish intermediate regime and sets up April as another range-bound month with no decisive directional bias.

Bull Case Range: $1.40 – $1.65

The bull case requires a confluence of positive catalysts: a BTC recovery above $80K driven by improved risk appetite, resumption of strong XRP ETF weekly inflows (above $80 million per week), and a positive XRP-specific headline such as a BlackRock XRP ETF filing confirmation or meaningful RLUSD adoption milestone. If XRP reclaims $1.50 on above-average volume, the path opens toward the descending channel’s upper boundary near $1.65–$1.70. A monthly close above $1.50 would be the first constructive signal in several months and would shift the April base case toward a recovery attempt.

Bear Case Range: $1.05 – $1.25

The bear case activates if the $1.20 support zone fails on heavy volume, likely catalyzed by a broader crypto market breakdown (BTC below $70K) or a negative macro shock such as higher-than-expected inflation data or geopolitical escalation. A loss of $1.20 opens the path toward the multi-year ascending trendline support in the $1.05–$1.10 area, which multiple analysts have identified as the potential cycle bottom for this correction. A monthly close below $1.20 would confirm the extended downtrend and shift the April outlook firmly bearish. For additional context on key XRP technical analysis levels, visit our dedicated analysis page.

Weekly Scenario Matrix

Scenario	Range	Key Assumption	Invalidation	Month-Close Impact
Base (50%)	$1.25–$1.45	BTC $70K–$80K; no major catalyst	Daily close below $1.20	Neutral; April remains range-bound
Bull (25%)	$1.40–$1.65	BTC >$80K; ETF inflows resume; positive headline	Rejection below $1.50 on retest	Constructive; April recovery setup
Bear (25%)	$1.05–$1.25	BTC <$70K; risk-off; negative macro	Reclaim of $1.30 on volume	Bearish; April downtrend extension

Key Support and Resistance Levels (Weekly + Monthly Close)

Support Zones

Two primary support zones define the downside risk for this week and the monthly close:

• $1.20 – Primary Support Zone. This level has acted as the floor for XRP’s consolidation range throughout late February and March 2026. It aligns with the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement of the November 2024–July 2025 rally. A defense here on a daily closing basis keeps the base and bull scenarios alive. A failure signal is two consecutive daily closes below $1.18, accompanied by rising sell volume.
• $1.05–$1.10 – Deep Support / Multi-Year Trendline. This is the confluence of the ascending trendline from the March 2020 cycle low and the horizontal demand zone from November 2024. Analysts have identified this area as the likely bottom for the current correction if the $1.20 zone fails. A wick into this zone with a recovery above $1.15 would be constructive; a sustained break below $1.05 on heavy volume would invalidate the macro uptrend.

Resistance Zones

• $1.45–$1.50 – Immediate Resistance Cluster. This zone has capped every relief rally since mid-February 2026. It aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement level and the declining 20-day EMA. A reclaim of $1.50 on a two-day closing basis would be the first structural improvement signal. A rejection signal is a high-volume wick above $1.50 followed by a daily close below $1.42.
• $1.65–$1.70 – Trend Resistance / Channel Upper Bound. This is the descending channel’s upper boundary and aligns with the 20-week EMA. A weekly close above $1.70 would constitute a channel breakout and shift the intermediate-term bias from bearish to neutral-to-bullish. This level is only relevant under the bull scenario.

Invalidation Level

The invalidation level for the weekly base scenario is a daily close below $1.05. If this occurs, the base case switches to the bear scenario, with an extended downtrend into April and potential for XRP to test the $0.85–$0.95 zone, which represents the 2024 pre-rally accumulation range.

Month-Close Levels That Decide April Regime

The March monthly candle closes at the end of this week. The following levels determine April’s starting conditions:

Monthly Close Level	Implication	April Regime
Above $1.50	First constructive monthly close since Q3 2025	Neutral-to-bullish; recovery attempt likely
$1.30 – $1.50	Continuation of range-bound consolidation	Neutral; sideways with no clear directional bias
$1.20 – $1.30	Weak monthly close at the lower range boundary	Bearish-leaning; risk of further breakdown in April
Below $1.20	Confirmed breakdown below critical support	Bearish; extended downtrend into April–May

Catalysts to Watch This Week

Macro Calendar and Risk Appetite

The FOMC held its March 17–18 meeting earlier this month, maintaining the federal funds rate at 3.50%–3.75% as expected. Post-FOMC positioning is still filtering through markets during this final week of March. The key macro data to monitor includes any forward-looking inflation prints, Q1 GDP revision expectations, and end-of-quarter institutional rebalancing flows that typically increase volatility in the final three trading days of the month. Risk appetite will also be influenced by geopolitical developments and equity market direction as major indices close out Q1.

Crypto Liquidity Signals

XRP ETF inflows have been a key structural driver since the spot XRP ETFs launched in November 2025. Net inflows have surpassed $1.3 billion to date, though weekly pace has moderated from the initial surge. Track weekly inflow data closely: sustained inflows above $80 million per week support the bull case, while outflows or flat inflows support the base or bear cases. BTC dominance continues to trend higher, which has historically been a headwind for altcoins including XRP. Funding rates, open interest, and the liquidation heat map should all be monitored daily. For the latest on how these signals affect XRP catalysts and price drivers, visit our catalysts hub.

XRP-Specific Catalysts

• RLUSD Expansion: Ripple’s USD-backed stablecoin has surpassed $1.4 billion in assets with growing transaction volumes. The Japan launch via SBI is a major infrastructure milestone, and any adoption metrics released this week could influence sentiment.
• BlackRock XRP ETF Speculation: While BlackRock has not confirmed a filing, industry insiders have hinted at a potential announcement toward late 2026 or early 2027. Any credible leak or filing update during this week could serve as a short-term catalyst.
• Ripple IPO Watch: Ripple raised $500 million at a $40 billion valuation from investors including Citadel Securities and Fortress Investment Group. While the company has indicated it is well-capitalized and may not pursue an IPO immediately, any signals around a public listing would be a major catalyst for XRP.
• Clarity Act Progress: The proposed legislation aims to provide comprehensive regulatory clarity for digital assets in the United States. Its passage would benefit XRP directly by eliminating residual regulatory uncertainty.

Catalyst-to-Trigger Map

Catalyst	Metric to Watch	Threshold	Scenario Impact
XRP ETF Inflows	Weekly net inflows	>$80M/week = bullish; <$20M = neutral	Bull case activation if sustained
BTC Price Action	Daily close vs $70K / $80K	>$80K = bull; <$70K = bear	Determines altcoin risk appetite
RLUSD Adoption	Transaction volume, AUM growth	Material week-over-week increase	Supports bull narrative; long-term
BlackRock ETF Filing	SEC filings, credible reports	Confirmed filing = major catalyst	Immediate bull-case activation
Macro Risk Event	Geopolitical news, inflation data	Escalation = risk-off	Bear case activation if severe
Clarity Act	Legislative progress, committee votes	Positive movement = bullish	Reduces regulatory discount for XRP

Weekly Monitoring Plan (Non-Advice)

This monitoring plan is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. It is designed to help readers structure their own observation process during the week.

Daily Checklist

• Check XRP daily close relative to $1.20 (support) and $1.45–$1.50 (resistance)
• Monitor BTC daily close relative to $70K and $80K
• Review XRP ETF daily inflow/outflow data
• Track XRP perpetual funding rates and open interest changes
• Scan for XRP-specific news (RLUSD, ETF filings, regulatory updates)
• Note any macro risk events (geopolitical, economic data releases)

If/Then Playbook (Including Month-Close Rules)

If This Happens…	Then Watch For…
XRP closes daily above $1.50	Shift to bull case; watch for follow-through toward $1.65
XRP closes daily below $1.20	Shift to bear case; monitor $1.05–$1.10 trendline support
BTC breaks above $80K	Improved altcoin risk appetite; XRP bull case probability increases
BTC breaks below $70K	Risk-off cascade; XRP bear case probability increases
XRP ETF weekly inflows >$80M	Structural demand support; favors base-to-bull shift
BlackRock filing confirmed	Immediate sentiment catalyst; potential for a $1.50+ breakout
Monthly close above $1.50	April starts with constructive bias; recovery attempt likely
Monthly close below $1.20	April opens bearish; extended downtrend into May becomes base case

April Setup (Routing Module)

The way March closes will set the tone for April’s XRP outlook. If the monthly candle confirms above the $1.30–$1.50 range, the April base case will lean toward a continuation of range-bound conditions with a bias for gradual recovery as ETF-driven demand and improving macro conditions provide a floor. If March closes below $1.20, the April base case will shift to an extended downtrend with potential for deeper support tests.

Transition links for April planning:

• XRP Next Month Price Prediction
• XRP April 2026 Price Prediction

Frequently Asked Questions

Update Log

Date	Update	Impact
Mar 30, 2026	Initial publication	N/A
[To be updated]	[Mid-week delta or catalyst update]	[Scenario weight change if applicable]

Post-Week + Post-Month Outcome Summary

This section will be completed after the week and month close. It serves as an archival reference for accuracy tracking and feeds into the monthly update hub.

Metric	Result
Weekly High	[To be updated]
Weekly Low	[To be updated]
Weekly Close	[To be updated]
March Monthly Close	[To be updated]
Scenario Realized	[Base / Bull / Bear]
April Regime Implication	[To be determined by monthly close]

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