XRP Weekly Forecast: Week of March 09, 2026 (Support, Resistance, and Catalysts)

What are the key XRP levels to watch this week?

This week’s key XRP levels are the support zones that must hold to keep the base case intact and the resistance zones that must break to confirm upside. Breakouts above resistance shift probability to the bull case; breaks below support shift it to the bear case.

Weekly Outlook

XRP enters the week of March 09, 2026 trading near $1.20–$1.30 after a sustained five-month correction from the July 2025 high of $3.66. The dominant regime remains bearish with a descending channel structure intact on the daily chart. The base case expects a consolidation range of $1.10–$1.45, with the $1.20 zone acting as the critical pivot. Price is below the 50-day EMA ($1.65), 100-day EMA ($2.09), and 200-day EMA ($2.24), confirming the bearish trend. Volatility is elevated, and the RSI sits in oversold territory near 27–30, suggesting a relief bounce is possible but not confirmed until key resistance is reclaimed.

Weekly Scenario Matrix

Scenario	Expected Range	Triggers	Confirmation	Invalidation
Base	$1.10 – $1.45	Consolidation above $1.20; no macro shock; moderate volume	Daily close above $1.30 with rising volume two consecutive days	Daily close below $1.10 on expanding volume
Bull	$1.45 – $1.75	Reclaim of $1.45 with follow-through; ETF inflows resume; FOMC dovish signal	Two-day close above $1.50 with positive funding rate and rising OI	Rejection at $1.50 and return below $1.30
Bear	$0.95 – $1.10	Break below $1.10; BTC drops below $70K; ETF outflows accelerate; macro risk-off	Daily close below $1.10 with liquidation cascade and rising exchange inflows	Reclaim of $1.20 on two consecutive daily closes

Key Levels Snapshot

Level / Zone	Type	Evidence	Confirmation	Invalidation
$1.00 – $1.05	Support	Multi-year ascending trendline from 2020 cycle low; psychological round number	Wick test with strong buying volume and daily close above $1.10	Daily close below $1.00 opens $0.85–$0.90 zone
$1.10 – $1.15	Support	November 2024 breakout origin; prior accumulation zone	Sustained hold for 48 hours with decreasing sell volume	Two consecutive 4H closes below $1.10
$1.20 – $1.25	Support	Analyst-projected ABC correction bottom; historical demand cluster	Daily close above $1.25 with RSI divergence	Failure to hold $1.20 on retest shifts to $1.10 target
$1.45 – $1.50	Resistance	January 2026 support-turned-resistance; 2026 yearly bull invalidation pivot	Daily close above $1.50 with volume above 20-day average	Rejection with a long upper wick and close below $1.40
$1.65 – $1.70	Resistance	50-day EMA zone; prior February support cluster	Reclaim with positive MACD crossover on daily chart	Failure to close above on first test
$1.94 – $2.00	Resistance	50-day EMA + psychological round number; repeated rejection zone in Jan–Feb 2026	Sustained two-day close above $2.00 with rising OI	Bearish engulfing candle on daily; return below $1.80

Catalyst Radar

• Macro: FOMC meeting on March 17–18 with Summary of Economic Projections and dot plot. Rate decision at 3.50%–3.75% (current hold). CPI and PPI data releases during the week.
• Crypto liquidity: XRP futures open interest at ~$2.68B (down from $4.55B in January). ETF cumulative inflows at $1.18B with total AUM at ~$1.11B. Funding rate near neutral (0.0073%).
• XRP-specific: RLUSD Japan launch progress via SBI; CLARITY Act / Market Structure Bill developments in the Senate; potential Ripple IPO speculation; XRPL Foundation governance transition; XRP ETF options market deepening.

Navigation Links

• XRP Weekly Forecast Hub
• XRP March 2026 Monthly Forecast
• Previous Week: Week of Mar 02, 2026
• Next Week: Week of Mar 16, 2026
• XRP Next Month Forecast

What Changed Since Last Week (Week of Mar 02 → Mar 09)

Price Structure Changes

The week of March 02 saw XRP continue its descent within the descending channel that has defined price action since mid-2025. Price broke below the $1.50 psychological support that had held through late January and early February, closing the week near $1.25–$1.30. The daily chart printed a series of lower highs and lower lows, confirming the bearish structure. The breakdown below $1.50 converted that zone from support to resistance, adding a new overhead barrier for any relief rally.

The weekly candle closed with a bearish body and a lower wick that tested the $1.20 area, suggesting initial buyer interest at the ABC correction target identified by multiple analysts. RSI on the daily timeframe dropped further into oversold territory near 27, while the MACD histogram continued to expand on the bearish side. This technical backdrop signals exhaustion selling, but no reversal pattern has formed yet.

Liquidity and Leverage Changes

Open interest declined from approximately $2.93B at the start of February to ~$2.68B entering the week of March 09. This drop reflects position closures rather than new directional conviction. Funding rates remain near neutral at 0.0073%, indicating that neither longs nor shorts are paying significant premiums. The unwinding of leveraged positions has reduced immediate liquidation risk but also signals that fresh capital is not entering the XRP derivatives market in size.

XRP ETF flows have weakened. After a strong start in late 2025 with cumulative inflows reaching $1.3B, recent weeks have seen alternating mild inflows and outflows. Total AUM sits at approximately $1.11B—below cumulative inflows—which means early ETF buyers are sitting on unrealized losses of 35–43% given their entry prices of $2.20–$2.80. Exchange-held XRP declined to 1.7 billion tokens, a seven-year low, which tightens available supply but has not yet translated into buying pressure.

Delta Summary: Week of Mar 02 → Mar 09

What Changed	Direction	Why It Matters
Price broke below $1.50	Bearish	Former support is now resistance; shrinks base-case range
RSI dropped to ~27 (oversold)	Neutral / Caution	Oversold can persist for weeks (see Oct 2025 flash crash precedent)
OI fell from $2.93B to ~$2.68B	Deleveraging	Reduces cascade risk but signals low conviction from new capital
ETF flows turned mixed (mild outflows)	Bearish tilt	Institutional demand is not absorbing selling pressure at current levels
Exchange-held XRP at 7-year low (1.7B tokens)	Structurally bullish (long-term)	Supply tightening, but demand must match for price impact
FOMC held rates at 3.50%–3.75% in January	Neutral	March 17–18 meeting now a key catalyst; dot plot will signal rate path

XRP Weekly Range Forecast (Week of Mar 09, 2026)

Base Case Range and Assumptions

Expected range: $1.10–$1.45. The base case assumes XRP consolidates in a tight band around the $1.20 projected bottom, with attempts to reclaim $1.30–$1.35 as near-term resistance. This scenario requires that Bitcoin holds above $70,000, the broader crypto market does not experience another liquidation cascade, and no negative macro surprises emerge ahead of the March 17–18 FOMC meeting. The multi-year ascending trendline from the 2020 cycle low currently aligns with $1.05–$1.10, providing structural support. Volume is expected to remain below the 20-day average unless a catalyst triggers renewed interest.

Bull Case Range and Breakout Triggers

Expected range: $1.45–$1.75. The bull case activates if XRP reclaims $1.45 on a daily close with above-average volume and positive funding rates. Triggers include a dovish surprise from the March FOMC meeting (rate cut signal or softer dot plot), resumption of sustained XRP ETF inflows exceeding $25M per week for three consecutive weeks, a positive CLARITY Act or Market Structure Bill development in the Senate, or a significant RLUSD Japan launch milestone through SBI. RSI bullish divergence on the 4H chart combined with MACD crossing above the signal line on the daily chart would provide technical confirmation.

Bear Case Range and Breakdown Triggers

Expected range: $0.95–$1.10. The bear case activates if XRP closes below $1.10 on expanding volume, particularly if accompanied by a Bitcoin drop below $70,000 or a broader market liquidation event. Accelerating ETF outflows, a hawkish FOMC statement, negative regulatory headlines (e.g., CLARITY Act stalling or new SEC enforcement actions), or Ripple’s 1 billion monthly XRP escrow release creating additional sell pressure could all trigger this scenario. A break below $1.00 would expose the $0.85–$0.90 zone, which represents the last major demand cluster before the 2024 lows.

Key Support and Resistance Levels

Support Zones

$1.20–$1.25 (Primary weekly support): This zone aligns with the projected ABC correction bottom and the level where multiple analysts expect the current downtrend to terminate. Historical demand has clustered here. Defense criteria: daily close above $1.20 with declining sell volume. Failure signal: two consecutive 4H closes below $1.20 with rising exchange inflows.

$1.10–$1.15 (Secondary support): This area marks the November 2024 breakout origin zone. It acted as a launchpad for the rally to $3.66 and represents a zone where long-term holders may defend positions. Failure below this level shifts the outlook firmly to the bear scenario.

$1.00–$1.05 (Structural floor): The multi-year ascending trendline from the March 2020 cycle low of $0.114 currently intersects this zone. A wick test with a strong bounce would be a classic trendline defense. A sustained break below $1.00 would represent a higher-timeframe structural failure.

Resistance Zones

$1.45–$1.50 (Primary weekly resistance): This zone was the January–February 2026 support that broke down in late February/early March. Reclaim criteria: daily close above $1.50 on volume exceeding the 20-day average. Rejection signal: a long upper wick candle with close below $1.40.

$1.65–$1.70 (Secondary resistance): Aligns with the 50-day EMA and the February support cluster. Reclaiming this zone would require sustained buying across multiple sessions and would signal the beginning of a trend change on the daily chart.

$1.94–$2.00 (Major resistance): The 50-day EMA zone combined with the psychological $2.00 level. XRP has been rejected repeatedly at this zone throughout 2026. A reclaim and sustained hold above $2.00 would invalidate the bear scenario for the year and restore the base/bull outlook.

Invalidation Level

The base scenario invalidation level for this week is a daily close below $1.10 on expanding volume. If this occurs, the bear scenario becomes primary, with $1.00–$1.05 as the next target and $0.85–$0.90 as the deeper support. The bear scenario itself invalidates with a reclaim of $1.20 on two consecutive daily closes with declining sell pressure.

Catalysts to Watch This Week

Macro Calendar (Risk Appetite Drivers)

The dominant macro event for the week of March 09 is the pre-FOMC positioning window. The FOMC meeting is scheduled for March 17–18 with a press conference and Summary of Economic Projections. Markets will begin pricing in expectations during this week. The current rate stands at 3.50%–3.75% after the January hold. Key macro data points to watch include CPI (if scheduled), PPI, and jobless claims, all of which feed into rate expectations. A hawkish tilt in Fed commentary or rising inflation prints would pressure risk assets, including XRP. Conversely, softer economic data supporting a rate cut at the March meeting would provide a tailwind.

Crypto Liquidity and Leverage Signals

Monitor Bitcoin’s behavior around the $70,000–$75,000 range. BTC has declined from $109,000 to below $75,000 in recent months, and any further breakdown would drag altcoins, including XRP, lower. XRP futures open interest at ~$2.68B is significantly below the July 2025 peak of $10.94B, reducing cascade liquidation risk but also signaling thin participation. Watch for OI stabilization above $3.0B with positive funding as a sign of returning conviction. ETF flow data remains the most transparent institutional demand signal—target weekly inflows above $25M for three consecutive weeks as a confirmation of renewed institutional interest.

XRP-Specific Catalysts

• RLUSD Japan launch via SBI: Japan accounts for more than half of Ripple’s global payment volume. Operational deployment of RLUSD through SBI creates compliant stablecoin rails on the XRP Ledger, potentially increasing utility-driven demand.
• CLARITY Act / Market Structure Bill: Senate progress on crypto-friendly legislation remains a key scenario switch. Passage would legitimize XRP and expand institutional participation. Stalling or challenges would maintain the status quo.
• Ripple IPO speculation: Although Ripple has stated it is well-capitalized following its $500M raise at a $40B valuation, IPO chatter persists. Any formal filing announcement would be a major catalyst.
• XRP ETF options market deepening: More liquid options markets allow institutions to hedge XRP exposure, potentially encouraging larger spot allocations.
• XRPL Foundation governance transition: The establishment of an independent XRP Ledger Foundation with decentralized governance could signal maturation of the ecosystem.
• Ripple’s monthly escrow release: Ripple releases 1 billion XRP monthly from escrow, with approximately 300 million entering circulation, creating ~$360M–$480M in structural selling pressure at current prices. Monitor how the market absorbs this supply.

Catalyst-to-Trigger Map

Catalyst	Metric to Watch	Threshold	Scenario Impact
FOMC March 17–18	Rate decision; dot plot; Powell press conference tone	Rate cut signal or softer dot plot	Dovish = Bull catalyst; Hawkish = Bear catalyst
XRP ETF weekly flows	Net weekly inflows / outflows	>$25M inflows for 3 consecutive weeks	Sustained inflows = Bull; Outflows = Bear tilt
CLARITY Act / Market Structure Bill	Senate vote progress; committee hearings	Senate floor vote or positive committee outcome	Passage = strong Bull catalyst; Stall = neutral / mild Bear
RLUSD Japan (SBI)	Deployment timeline; corridor volume data	Live operational deployment with bank corridor volume	Bullish for utility narrative; slow rollout = neutral
BTC price action	BTC/USD around $70K–$75K	Sustained hold above $70K vs. breakdown below	BTC hold = neutral; BTC breakdown = Bear
XRP Open Interest	OI value + funding rate	OI stable >$3.0B with positive funding	Rising OI + positive funding = Bull; declining = Bear

Weekly Monitoring Plan (Non-Advice)

This monitoring plan is informational and not financial advice. It provides a structured framework for tracking XRP price developments during the week of March 09, 2026.

Daily Checklist

• Check XRP daily close relative to $1.20 support and $1.45 resistance.
• Review 4H RSI for bullish divergence signals (higher RSI lows while price makes lower lows).
• Monitor daily MACD histogram for momentum shift (shrinking red bars or crossover).
• Track XRP ETF daily flow data for signs of renewed institutional interest.
• Note BTC daily close relative to $70,000–$75,000 range.
• Check XRP futures open interest and funding rate for positioning shifts.
• Review exchange inflow/outflow data for supply dynamics.
• Monitor news feeds for CLARITY Act, RLUSD, or FOMC-related headlines.

If/Then Playbook

If This Happens	Then This Is the Signal	Scenario Shift
XRP closes above $1.45 on two consecutive days with rising volume	Breakout above primary resistance confirmed	Shift from Base to Bull
XRP closes below $1.10 on expanding volume with rising exchange inflows	Base case support failure	Shift from Base to Bear
BTC drops below $70K with crypto-wide liquidation cascade	Risk-off contagion across altcoins	Accelerate Bear probability
XRP ETF reports >$25M weekly inflows for a second consecutive week	Institutional demand returning	Increase Bull probability
FOMC signals rate cut at March 17–18 meeting	Macro tailwind for risk assets	Strong Bull catalyst
CLARITY Act passes Senate committee vote	Regulatory clarity milestone	Strong Bull catalyst for XRP specifically
RSI stays below 30 for >5 consecutive days without price recovery	Persistent weakness; oversold can persist (Oct 2025 precedent: 18 days)	Bear momentum intact; avoid premature reversal calls

Related Forecasts

Monthly and Yearly Context

For the broader monthly context, see the XRP March 2026 monthly forecast (when published). The monthly forecast provides scenario ranges, key levels, and catalyst assumptions for the full month, along with links to each weekly update.

The XRP 2026 yearly forecast outlines the bull ($3.80–$5.50), base ($1.80–$2.00), and bear ($1.20–$1.50) ranges for the full year, with quarterly scenario updates.

Hub and Navigation Links

• XRP price prediction (main hub)
• XRP this week forecast
• XRP technical analysis hub
• XRP catalysts hub
• XRP sentiment and liquidity hub

Adjacent Weekly Forecasts

• Previous week: XRP Weekly Forecast – Week of Mar 02, 2026
• Next week: XRP Weekly Forecast – Week of Mar 16, 2026 (link will be active when published)

Frequently Asked Questions

Update Log

Published: March 09, 2026

Last updated: March 09, 2026

Date	Event	Change	Notes
Mar 09, 2026	Initial publish	Base/Bull/Bear scenarios established	Levels and catalysts set for the week
[Update date]	[Trigger event]	[Scenario probability change]	[Rationale]

Post-Week Outcome Summary

[This section will be added after the week of March 09, 2026 ends.]

Metric	Forecasted	Actual	Notes
Weekly High	$1.45 (base ceiling)	[TBD]	[TBD]
Weekly Low	$1.10 (base floor)	[TBD]	[TBD]
Weekly Close	~$1.25–$1.30 (base midpoint)	[TBD]	[TBD]
Which Scenario Played Out?	Base	[TBD]	[TBD]
Triggers That Fired	N/A (pre-week)	[TBD]	[TBD]

Disclaimer: This content is informational and should not be considered financial advice. Cryptocurrency investments carry significant risk. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always conduct your own research before making investment decisions.