XRP Weekly Forecast: Week of February 23, 2026

What should I watch for XRP into the monthly close?

Into the monthly close, focus on whether XRP holds key support zones and whether it can reclaim major resistance with follow-through. Weekly and monthly closes near important levels often decide whether the base scenario stays intact or shifts to a bull/bear path for next month.

Forecast Window: February 23–28, 2026 (Week 4 / Final Week of February)

Published: February 23, 2026

Last Updated: February 23, 2026 (Initial weekly forecast)

📅 MONTH-END WEEK: This is the final full week of February. The monthly close (Feb 28) will set the tone for March.

Weekly Outlook: XRP enters the final week of February 2026 after consolidating above the CPI breakout level. The FOMC minutes last week confirmed the dovish narrative, and XRP held the $4.50-$4.60 retest zone. The market regime remains bullish with BTC stable near $127K. This week’s expected range is $4.55-$5.15, with the base case anticipating a test of the $5.00 psychological level before month-end. PCE inflation (Friday Feb 27) is the week’s primary catalyst. Key focus: whether XRP can close February above $4.80 to confirm the monthly bullish scenario and set up a constructive March.

Week of Feb 23, 2026 Scenario Snapshot:

• Base ($4.60-$5.00): Consolidation near highs; holds $4.60 support; tests $5.00; neutral PCE
• Bull ($5.00-$5.35): Break above $5.00 with volume; cool PCE; BTC >$130K; strong monthly close
• Bear ($4.30-$4.60): Break below $4.60; hot PCE surprise; risk-off into month-end

Key Levels This Week (Including Month-End):

• Support 1: $4.65-$4.75 (Feb consolidation floor; first defense)
• Support 2: $4.50-$4.60 (breakout retest; must hold for bullish Feb close)
• Resistance 1: $4.95-$5.05 (psychological $5; bull trigger)
• Resistance 2: $5.25-$5.35 (extension target; Feb high zone)
• Weekly Invalidation: Daily close below $4.45 (Feb structure breaks)
• Monthly Close Target: Close above $4.80 = bullish Feb; above $5.00 = strong setup for March

Catalyst Radar This Week:

• PCE Inflation (Fri Feb 27): Fed’s preferred inflation measure; month-end volatility driver
• GDP 2nd Estimate (Thu): Economic growth confirmation
• Monthly Close (Sat Feb 28): Sets March bias; watch Friday positioning
• BTC/ETF Flows: Month-end institutional rebalancing

Navigate: February 2026 monthly forecast | Weekly hub | This week hub | Last week (Feb 16)

What Changed Since Last Week (Week of Feb 16 → Feb 23)

Metric	Week of Feb 16	Week of Feb 23	Change
Weekly Range	$4.35-$5.10	$4.55-$5.15	Narrowed up
Primary Support	$4.35-$4.45	$4.50-$4.60	+$0.15
Primary Resistance	$4.85-$5.00	$4.95-$5.05	+$0.10
Regime	Cautiously bullish	Bullish (confirmed)	Upgraded
BTC Regime	$126K breakout bias	$127K stable	Constructive
Key Catalyst	FOMC Minutes (Feb 18)	PCE (Feb 27)	Different

Market Regime Changes (Trend/Range)

Last week’s FOMC minutes confirmed the dovish pivot narrative, supporting risk assets. XRP successfully held the $4.50-$4.60 breakout retest zone and made multiple attempts at $4.85-$4.90 resistance. The regime has upgraded from ‘cautiously bullish’ to ‘bullish (confirmed)’ as higher lows continue forming and the breakout structure remains intact. Volatility has compressed after the post-FOMC reaction, creating conditions for a potential expansion into month-end.

Liquidity/Leverage Changes (OI, Funding, Squeeze Risk)

Open interest remains elevated after the February breakout, with funding rates moderately positive. Positioning has stabilized—not extreme but biased long. Key liquidation clusters: longs below $4.45 (would trigger cascade), shorts above $5.15 (would accelerate rally). Month-end rebalancing may add positioning volatility Friday. For positioning analysis methodology, see the sentiment and liquidity hub.

XRP Weekly Range Forecast (Week of Feb 23, 2026)

Scenario	Range	Triggers	Confirm	Invalid	Prob	Month-End
Base	$4.60-$5.00	Hold $4.60; test $5; neutral PCE	Consolidation	Break S/R	~45%	Bullish Feb
Bull	$5.00-$5.35	Break $5; cool PCE; BTC >$130K	Close >$5.05	Reject <$4.90	~35%	Strong March
Bear	$4.30-$4.60	Break $4.60; hot PCE; risk-off	Close <$4.55	Reclaim $4.70	~20%	Weak March

Base Case Range + Assumptions

The base case ($4.60-$5.00) assumes: XRP consolidates near its February highs, $4.60 support holds as the higher low, $5.00 provides near-term resistance that may be tested, BTC remains stable near $127K, PCE data comes in roughly as expected without major surprises, and month-end positioning normalizes without extreme volatility. This results in a bullish February close ($4.80+) that sets up a constructive March.

Bull Case Range + Breakout Triggers

The bull case ($5.00-$5.35) activates on: a confirmed break above $5.00 with volume, cool PCE data supporting continued dovish expectations, BTC breaking above $130K, or positive XRP-specific headlines. Confirmation requires a daily close above $5.05. Target: $5.25-$5.35 February high zone. A close above $5.00 would signal a strong March setup. For level methodology, see the technical analysis hub.

Bear Case Range + Breakdown Triggers

The bear case ($4.30-$4.60) activates on: a break below $4.60 support with follow-through, hot PCE data surprising hawkish, BTC rejection below $125K, or month-end risk-off rotation. Confirmation requires a daily close below $4.55. Target: $4.40-$4.50 initial, then $4.30 if momentum accelerates. This would result in a weak February close and a cautious March setup.

Key Support and Resistance Levels (Weekly + Month-End Context)

Level Zone	Type	Evidence	Confirms	Invalidates	Month-End
$4.65-$4.75	Support 1	Feb consolidation floor; first defense	Bounce + vol	Break <$4.65	Base scenario
$4.50-$4.60	Support 2	Breakout retest; must hold for bullish close	Defense hold	Close <$4.55	Critical for Feb
$4.95-$5.05	Resistance 1	Psychological $5; bull trigger	Close >$5.05	Rejection = range	Strong Feb close
$5.25-$5.35	Resistance 2	Extension; Feb high zone	Follow-through	Fail = retest $5	Exceptional Feb
$4.45	Invalidation	Feb structure breaks	N/A	Close <$4.45	Weak Feb setup

Support Zones (Defense Criteria + Failure Signal)

The $4.65-$4.75 zone is the first line of defense—February’s consolidation floor where price has based this week. A bounce from this zone with volume keeps the base case intact. The $4.50-$4.60 zone is the critical level for February’s bullish narrative—losing this means the CPI breakout failed. Failure signal: daily close below $4.55 with expanding volume.

Resistance Zones (Reclaim Criteria + Rejection Signal)

The $4.95-$5.05 zone is the bull trigger featuring the psychological $5 level. A confirmed break above (daily close >$5.05 with volume) activates the bull scenario and signals a strong February close. The $5.25-$5.35 zone is the extension target that would make February exceptional. Rejection signal: wick above $5.00 followed by close below $4.90 = consolidation continues.

Invalidation Level (Scenario Switch)

A daily close below $4.45 invalidates the base scenario for this week and signals February’s bullish structure has broken. If this occurs, shift to the bear scenario—expect a weak February close and cautious March setup.

Month-End Level Watch (What Matters Into March)

The February monthly close (Feb 28) is critical for March’s starting bias: Above $5.00 = exceptional February, strong March setup. Above $4.80 = bullish February confirmed, constructive March. Below $4.60 = weak February, cautious March. For March planning, see the next month XRP prediction hub and March XRP forecast hub.

Catalysts to Watch This Week

Catalyst	Metric	Threshold	Expected Impact
PCE (Fri Feb 27)	Core PCE vs estimate	>0.4% = hot; <0.2% = cool	Fed’s preferred inflation; month-end volatility
GDP 2nd Est (Thu)	Q4 GDP growth	In-line = neutral	Economic health confirmation
Monthly Close (Sat)	Feb 28 closing price	>$4.80 = bullish; >$5.00 = strong	Sets March bias; watch Fri positioning
BTC Regime	BTC vs $125K-$130K	>$130K = bullish; <$125K = risk	Drives broad crypto sentiment
Month-End Flows	Institutional rebalancing	Net inflows = constructive	Portfolio allocation adjustments

Macro Calendar + Risk Appetite

This week’s primary macro catalyst is the PCE inflation report on Friday (Feb 27). As the Fed’s preferred inflation measure, it carries significant weight for rate expectations. Hot data could challenge the dovish narrative; cool data would reinforce it. GDP 2nd estimate (Thursday) provides economic growth confirmation. Month-end positioning Friday may add volatility ahead of the weekend close. For catalyst framework, see the catalysts hub.

Crypto Liquidity Signals

OI remains elevated with moderately positive funding—positioning is long-biased but not extreme. Month-end rebalancing may trigger positioning adjustments Friday-Saturday. Watch for funding to spike if price approaches $5—this would indicate crowded positioning and potential squeeze risk. Key liquidation clusters: longs below $4.45, shorts above $5.15.

XRP-Specific Catalysts

No major XRP-specific catalysts are scheduled for this week. Monitor for: Ripple announcements, ETF updates, regulatory developments, and XRPL ecosystem news. XRP-specific headlines could accelerate a $5 breakout if positive or trigger profit-taking if negative.

Weekly Monitoring Plan (Non-Advice)

Disclaimer: This is informational content, not financial advice. Use this as a monitoring framework, not trading signals.

Daily Checklist

• Monday (Feb 23): Final week open; weekend momentum; support/resistance tests
• Tuesday (Feb 24): Early-week direction; $5 attempt window opens
• Wednesday (Feb 25): Mid-week assessment; pre-data positioning
• Thursday (Feb 26): GDP 2nd estimate; pre-PCE positioning
• Friday (Feb 27): PCE release (highest impact); month-end positioning; weekly close setup
• Saturday (Feb 28): MONTHLY CLOSE — February outcome determined; March bias set

If/Then Playbook (Including Month-End Rules)

• IF XRP holds $4.65 and respects $5.00 → THEN base case remains active; expect bullish Feb close ($4.80+)
• IF XRP breaks above $5.05 with daily close → THEN shift to bull scenario; target $5.25-$5.35; strong March setup
• IF XRP breaks below $4.55 with daily close → THEN shift to bear scenario; weak Feb close; cautious March
• IF PCE comes in cool (<0.2% Core) → THEN increase bull probability; $5 breakout window opens
• IF PCE comes in hot (>0.4% Core) → THEN increase bear probability; watch support closely into close
• IF Feb closes above $5.00 → THEN March starts with strong bullish bias

Related Forecasts (Internal Routing)

February 2026 Monthly Forecast

This is the final checkpoint for the February 2026 monthly forecast. The monthly bull scenario ($4.80-$6.00) has been confirmed after the CPI breakout and FOMC confirmation. This week determines the final monthly outcome and whether February closes near the top of that range or consolidates. For evergreen February context, see the February hub | 2026 year hub | XRP price prediction

Next Month Hub + March Hub (Routing)

As February closes, plan for March using: Next month XRP prediction hub (rolling next-month framework) | March XRP forecast hub (evergreen March scenarios). March 2026 month-by-year forecast will be published when available.

Frequently Asked Questions

Update Log (In-Post)

Date/Time	Update Notes
Feb 23, 2026	Initial weekly forecast published. Base: $4.60-$5.00. Bull: $5.00-$5.35. Bear: $4.30-$4.60. Month-end week.

Post-Week Outcome Summary

Status: Active forecast — this section will be completed after the week and month end (Feb 28, 2026).

[To be completed after month-end] This section will document: actual weekly H/L/C vs expected range, February monthly close level, which scenario played out, which triggers fired, PCE reaction, and what February’s outcome signals for March.