Table of Contents
XRP Weekly Forecast: Week of February 02, 2026
What are the key XRP support and resistance levels this week?
This week’s XRP key levels are the support zones that must hold to keep the base case intact and the resistance zones that must break to confirm upside. A clean break above resistance shifts probability to the bull case; a break below support shifts it to the bear case.
Forecast Window: February 02–08, 2026 (Week 1 of February)
Published: February 02, 2026
Last Updated: February 02, 2026 (Initial weekly forecast)
Weekly Outlook: XRP enters the first full week of February 2026 building on January’s close. The market regime remains constructive with BTC holding above $120K and risk appetite stable. This week’s expected range is $3.90-$4.70, with the base case anticipating consolidation near the $4.20-$4.40 zone. NFP jobs data (Friday) is the week’s primary catalyst—expect volatility around the release. Key focus: whether XRP can hold the $3.90 support floor established in late January and whether it can test the $4.60 resistance zone.
Week of Feb 02, 2026 Scenario Snapshot:
- Base ($3.90-$4.50): Consolidation; holds $3.90 support; respects $4.50 resistance; awaits NFP catalyst
- Bull ($4.50-$4.90): Break above $4.50 with volume; weak NFP = dovish Fed; BTC strength continuation
- Bear ($3.50-$3.90): Break below $3.90; hot NFP = hawkish Fed; risk-off rotation
Key Levels This Week:
- Support 1: $4.00-$4.10 (January close zone; first defense)
- Support 2: $3.85-$3.95 (weekly floor; must hold for base case)
- Resistance 1: $4.45-$4.55 (range high; bull trigger zone)
- Resistance 2: $4.75-$4.90 (extension target if breakout confirms)
- Weekly Invalidation: Daily close below $3.80 (base case fails)
Catalyst Radar This Week:
- NFP Jobs Report (Fri Feb 6): Week’s highest-impact macro catalyst
- ISM Services (Wed Feb 4): Economic health signal
- BTC Regime: Watching $120K support; strength supports XRP
- ETF Flow Data: New month allocation patterns
Navigate: February 2026 monthly forecast | Weekly hub | This week hub | Last week (Jan 26)
What Changed Since Last Week (Regime & Levels)
| Metric | Last Week (Jan 26) | This Week (Feb 02) | Change |
| Weekly Range | $3.70-$4.40 | $3.90-$4.70 | Shifted up |
| Primary Support | $3.60-$3.75 | $3.85-$3.95 | +$0.20 |
| Primary Resistance | $4.30-$4.45 | $4.45-$4.55 | +$0.15 |
| BTC Regime | $115K-$125K range | $120K-$130K bias | Stronger |
| Funding Rate | Slightly positive | Neutral | Healthier |
Price Structure Changes (Trend, Range, Volatility)
XRP closed January on a constructive note, pushing above the $4.00 psychological level and establishing a new near-term floor. The weekly range has shifted up by approximately $0.20 across both support and resistance zones. Volatility compressed during the final week of January as the market awaited the monthly close, creating a tighter consolidation pattern. The trend bias remains neutral-to-bullish, with higher lows forming on the daily timeframe.
Liquidity/Leverage Shifts (OI, Funding, Liquidation Zones)
Open interest has stabilized after January’s build-up, with funding rates returning to neutral territory (healthier positioning vs last week’s slightly elevated funding). Key liquidation clusters exist below $3.80 (long liquidations) and above $4.70 (short liquidations). New month flows may add positioning—watch for OI expansion early in the week. For positioning analysis methodology, see the sentiment and liquidity hub.
XRP Weekly Range Forecast (Week of Feb 02, 2026)
| Scenario | Expected Range | Triggers | Confirmation | Invalidation | Probability |
| Base | $3.90-$4.50 | Hold $3.90; respect $4.50; neutral NFP | Range trading | Break S/R | ~55% |
| Bull | $4.50-$4.90 | Break $4.50; weak NFP; BTC >$125K | Daily close >$4.55 | Rejection <$4.40 | ~25% |
| Bear | $3.50-$3.90 | Break $3.90; hot NFP; risk-off | Daily close <$3.85 | Reclaim $4.00 | ~20% |
Base Case Range + Assumptions
The base case ($3.90-$4.50) assumes: XRP holds the $3.90 support floor, resistance at $4.50 caps upside temporarily, BTC remains stable in its $120K-$130K range, NFP data comes in roughly as expected without major Fed implications, and new month positioning normalizes without extreme flows. This is the consolidation scenario—price builds a base for a directional move later in February.
Bull Case Range + Breakout Triggers
The bull case ($4.50-$4.90) activates on: a confirmed break above $4.50 with volume, weak NFP data supporting dovish Fed expectations, BTC breaking above $125K and continuing January’s momentum, or positive XRP-specific headlines. Confirmation requires a daily close above $4.55. Target: $4.75-$4.90 extension zone. For level methodology, see the technical analysis hub.
Bear Case Range + Breakdown Triggers
The bear case ($3.50-$3.90) activates on: a break below $3.90 with follow-through, hot NFP data supporting hawkish Fed expectations, BTC rejection below $120K, or broad risk-off rotation. Confirmation requires a daily close below $3.85. Target: $3.60-$3.70 initial, then $3.50 if momentum continues.
Key Support and Resistance Levels
| Level Zone | Type | Evidence | What Confirms | What Invalidates |
| $4.00-$4.10 | Support 1 | January close; psychological level; first defense | Bounce with volume | Break below $4.00 |
| $3.85-$3.95 | Support 2 | Weekly floor; must hold for base case | Defense on retest | Daily close <$3.85 |
| $4.45-$4.55 | Resistance 1 | Range high; bull trigger zone | Daily close >$4.55 | Rejection = range |
| $4.75-$4.90 | Resistance 2 | Extension target; short squeeze zone | Follow-through | Fail = retest $4.50 |
| $3.80 | Invalidation | Base scenario fails; structure flip | N/A | Daily close <$3.80 |
Support Zones (Defense Criteria + Failure Signal)
The $4.00-$4.10 zone is the first line of defense this week—January’s closing price area and a psychological round number. A bounce from this zone with volume keeps the base case intact. The $3.85-$3.95 zone is the critical weekly floor—if this breaks, the bear scenario activates. Failure signal: daily close below $3.85 with expanding volume.
Resistance Zones (Reclaim Criteria + Rejection Signal)
The $4.45-$4.55 zone is the bull trigger—a confirmed break above (daily close >$4.55 with volume) activates the bull scenario. The $4.75-$4.90 zone is the extension target where short liquidations may accelerate price. Rejection signal: wick above $4.50 followed by close below $4.40 = range scenario persists.
Invalidation Level (What Proves the Base Case Wrong)
A daily close below $3.80 invalidates the base scenario for this week. If this occurs, shift to the bear scenario as the operating framework—expect tests of $3.60-$3.70, potentially $3.50 if momentum accelerates. Update scenario weights and record the change in the update log below.
Catalysts to Watch This Week
| Catalyst | Metric | Threshold | Expected Impact |
| NFP (Fri Feb 6) | Jobs added vs estimate | >200K = hot; <150K = weak | Hot = bearish (hawkish Fed); Weak = bullish |
| ISM Services (Wed) | Services PMI | >55 = strong; <50 = weak | Strong = stable; Weak = risk-off concerns |
| BTC Regime | BTC price vs $120K | >$125K = bullish; <$118K = risk | Drives broad crypto sentiment |
| ETF Flows | Weekly net flows | >$100M/wk = bullish | New month allocation signal |
| Funding Rate | XRP perp funding | Extreme = squeeze risk | Healthy = stable ranges |
Macro Calendar (Rates, USD, Equities, Risk Appetite)
This week’s primary macro catalyst is the NFP jobs report on Friday (Feb 6). A hot print (>200K) would support ‘higher for longer’ rate expectations, pressuring risk assets. A weak print (<150K) would support dovish expectations, benefiting crypto. ISM Services PMI (Wednesday) provides a mid-week economic health check. Dollar strength typically inversely correlates with XRP—watch DXY for confirmation signals. For catalyst framework, see the catalysts hub.
Crypto Liquidity Signals (Funding, OI, Vol, ETF Flows)
Watch for new-month positioning to enter the market early in the week. ETF flow data will reveal whether institutional allocation patterns from January continue into February. Funding rates are currently neutral—a healthier setup than last week’s slight positive bias. Key liquidation clusters: longs below $3.80, shorts above $4.70. If funding becomes extremely positive, anticipate squeeze risk on any downside moves.
XRP-Specific Catalysts (Legal/ETF/Access, XRPL/Ripple)
No major XRP-specific catalysts are scheduled for this week. Monitor for: unexpected Ripple announcements, ETF product news, regulatory developments, and XRPL ecosystem updates. XRP-specific headlines can override broader market direction when they occur.
Weekly Trading/Monitoring Plan (Non-Advice)
Disclaimer: This is informational content, not financial advice. Use this as a monitoring framework, not trading signals.
Daily Checklist (What to Monitor Each Day)
- Monday (Feb 2): New month open; positioning flows; weekend momentum carryover
- Tuesday (Feb 3): Early-week direction establishment; ETF flow data
- Wednesday (Feb 4): ISM Services PMI; mid-week trend check
- Thursday (Feb 5): Pre-NFP positioning; potential volatility compression
- Friday (Feb 6): NFP release (highest impact); volatility spike expected
- Weekend: Post-NFP reaction analysis; weekly close assessment
If/Then Playbook (Scenario Switching Rules)
- IF XRP holds $3.90-$4.00 and respects $4.50 → THEN base case remains active (range trading)
- IF XRP breaks above $4.55 with daily close → THEN shift to bull scenario; target $4.75-$4.90
- IF XRP breaks below $3.85 with daily close → THEN shift to bear scenario; expect test of $3.60-$3.70
- IF NFP comes in hot (>200K) → THEN increase bear scenario probability; watch support levels closely
- IF NFP comes in weak (<150K) → THEN increase bull scenario probability; watch for breakout attempt
Related Forecasts (Internal Routing)
February 2026 Monthly Forecast
This week is the first checkpoint for the February 2026 monthly forecast. The monthly outlook currently projects a base range of $3.80-$4.80. This week’s action will help confirm or adjust the monthly scenario weights. A strong week (break above $4.50) would increase bull scenario probability for February; a weak week (break below $3.90) would increase bear scenario probability.
Next Week Forecast (Week of Feb 09, 2026)
The Week of Feb 09, 2026 XRP forecast will be linked here when published. Next week features CPI data (Feb 12) as the major catalyst. For evergreen weekly framework: Weekly hub | 2026 year hub | February evergreen hub | XRP price prediction pillar
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the XRP weekly forecast for the week of Feb 02, 2026?
This forecast provides scenario-based ranges for the week: Base $3.90-$4.50 (~55%), Bull $4.50-$4.90 (~25%), Bear $3.50-$3.90 (~20%). The goal is to define what must be true for each scenario and how the outlook changes if triggers fire during the week.
What are the key support and resistance levels for XRP this week?
Support: $4.00-$4.10 (first defense), $3.85-$3.95 (weekly floor). Resistance: $4.45-$4.55 (bull trigger), $4.75-$4.90 (extension). Invalidation: daily close below $3.80.
What would invalidate the base scenario this week?
A daily close below $3.80 invalidates the base scenario. When this occurs, shift to the bear scenario as the operating framework. The invalidation level is $3.80 because it represents a structural failure below the weekly floor.
Which catalysts can move XRP the most this week?
NFP Jobs Report (Friday Feb 6) is the week’s highest-impact catalyst. Hot data (>200K) is bearish; weak data (<150K) is bullish. Also watch: ISM Services (Wednesday), BTC regime around $120K, and ETF flow data for new-month allocation signals.
How do funding rates and open interest affect the weekly outlook?
Rising OI with extreme funding signals crowded positioning and squeeze risk, widening ranges. Neutral funding (current condition) suggests healthier positioning and more stable ranges. Watch liquidation clusters below $3.80 (longs) and above $4.70 (shorts).
How should I update the forecast if XRP breaks a key level?
Use if/then rules: Break above $4.55 with daily close → shift to bull scenario, target $4.75-$4.90. Break below $3.85 with daily close → shift to bear scenario, target $3.60-$3.70. Update scenario weights and record changes in the update log.
Where does this week fit into the February 2026 monthly forecast?
This is Week 1 of February 2026—the first checkpoint for the monthly forecast. This week’s price action helps confirm or adjust February’s scenario weights. Strong weeks increase bull probability; weak weeks increase bear probability for the month.
Where can I find the next week’s XRP forecast?
Use the Weekly Forecast Hub and the ‘Related Forecasts’ section above. Next week’s post (Week of Feb 09, 2026) will be linked as soon as it’s published. For chronological navigation, each weekly post links to the previous and next weeks.
Update Log (In-Post)
| Date/Time | Update Notes |
| Feb 02, 2026 | Initial weekly forecast published. Base: $3.90-$4.50. Bull: $4.50-$4.90. Bear: $3.50-$3.90. |
Post-Week Outcome Summary
Status: Active forecast — this section will be completed after the week ends (Feb 08, 2026).
[To be completed after week-end] This section will document: actual weekly high/low/close vs expected range, which scenario played out, which triggers fired, NFP reaction, and lessons for future weekly forecasts.
Steve Gregory is a lawyer in the United States who specializes in licensing for cryptocurrency companies and products. Steve began his career as an attorney in 2015 but made the switch to working in cryptocurrency full time shortly after joining the original team at Gemini Trust Company, an early cryptocurrency exchange based in New York City. Steve then joined CEX.io and was able to launch their regulated US-based cryptocurrency. Steve then went on to become the CEO at currency.com when he ran for four years and was able to lead currency.com to being fully acquired in 2025.
