Bitcoin’s Bullish Indicators: Room to Run or End of Cycle?
In the ever-volatile world of cryptocurrency, Bitcoin continues to captivate investors and enthusiasts alike. As of October 2025, many are casting a speculative eye towards the market, pondering whether this quarter will signal the end of the current cycle or if the cryptocurrency giant still has plenty of room to grow. While some analysts are predicting a market cooldown, two pivotal metrics suggest otherwise, indicating potential longevity in the bull market.
A Closer Look at Key Metrics
Recently, data from Glassnode has highlighted two significant metrics: the 200-week moving average (200-WMA) and the realized price. These indicators have historically provided insights into Bitcoin’s market behavior and could be crucial in forecasting the cryptocurrency’s future trajectory.
The 200-WMA, which averages Bitcoin’s price over a long-term horizon, has now breached the $53,000 mark. This is noteworthy because the 200-WMA has typically only trended upwards, acting as a long-term support level for Bitcoin’s price. When the realized price, the average price at which all Bitcoin in circulation last moved on-chain, surpasses the 200-WMA, it can be a bullish signal. Currently, the realized price has risen above the 200-WMA, standing at $54,000.
Historical Patterns and Predictions
Looking back at past market cycles, a pattern emerges. During bull markets, the realized price tends to rise above the 200-WMA, while in bear markets, it usually falls below. This pattern was evident in the 2017 and 2021 bull markets, where the realized price climbed higher, widening the gap above the 200-WMA, before eventually collapsing below it, signaling the onset of bear markets. Conversely, during the downturn of 2022, the realized price dipped below the 200-WMA but has only recently surged above it, hinting at a potential bull market continuation.
Historical trends suggest that once the realized price remains consistently above the 200-WMA, Bitcoin has often pushed higher as the bull market progresses. This consistency lends credence to the idea that the current market cycle may still have untapped potential.
Investor Sentiment: Cautious Optimism
While the metrics present a bullish outlook, investor sentiment remains mixed. Some market participants are adopting an “end-of-cycle” perspective, cautious of potential market corrections. This caution stems from the inherent volatility of cryptocurrencies and the unpredictable nature of external influences, such as regulatory changes or macroeconomic shifts.
However, others are optimistic, viewing the current metrics as an indication of continued growth. The breach of the $53,000 threshold by the 200-WMA is seen as a robust support level, providing confidence that Bitcoin’s price could be poised for further gains.
The Broader Implications
The implications of these metrics extend beyond individual investment decisions. A continued bull market could attract more institutional investors, driving further mainstream adoption of Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies. It could also influence the broader financial landscape, impacting everything from fintech innovations to regulatory frameworks.
On the flip side, should the market correct, it may serve as a reminder of the risks associated with cryptocurrency investments. The potential for sharp declines remains, as evidenced by previous market cycles.
Conclusion: The Road Ahead
As Bitcoin navigates the final quarter of 2025, the interplay between the 200-WMA and realized price will be critical in determining its trajectory. While the metrics point towards a bullish continuation, the market’s inherent unpredictability necessitates caution.
Investors and analysts alike will be watching closely, ready to adapt strategies based on the evolving landscape. Whether Bitcoin’s price continues to surge or experiences a pullback, one thing is clear: the cryptocurrency market remains as dynamic and compelling as ever.
In the meantime, Bitcoin enthusiasts and skeptics will continue to debate the cryptocurrency’s future, each interpretation colored by their own experiences and expectations. As always, the only certainty in the world of crypto is change.
Steve Gregory is a lawyer in the United States who specializes in licensing for cryptocurrency companies and products. Steve began his career as an attorney in 2015 but made the switch to working in cryptocurrency full time shortly after joining the original team at Gemini Trust Company, an early cryptocurrency exchange based in New York City. Steve then joined CEX.io and was able to launch their regulated US-based cryptocurrency. Steve then went on to become the CEO at currency.com when he ran for four years and was able to lead currency.com to being fully acquired in 2025.
