Bitcoin’s recent dip has left investors on edge, but according to crypto analyst Kevin, also known as Kev Capital TA, there’s no need for panic—provided the digital currency holds critical support levels. Late on September 25, Kevin laid out his analysis, emphasizing the importance of the $107,000 to $98,000 range as the fulcrum for Bitcoin’s next bullish move. “Hold $107K to $98K,” he stated, underscoring the simplicity and crucial nature of this range.
A Familiar Pattern Unfolds
As Bitcoin’s price slipped to $108,651, the market sentiment turned bearish. However, Kevin reassured his audience that this pullback follows a familiar seasonal and structural script. He has been cautioning traders since early August about potential bearish divergences across Bitcoin, Ethereum, and the total altcoin market (Total2). These warning signs, he noted, have been present as the markets approached significant resistance zones not seen in over four years.
Kevin argued that many traders mistakenly view symmetrical triangle patterns as a signal for continuation to the upside, but in the volatile crypto market, these patterns rarely break upward. He highlighted a series of smaller impulse highs since late 2023, with major cryptocurrencies, including Bitcoin, failing to surpass key resistance levels.
The Confluence of Indicators
Kevin’s analysis heavily relies on confluence across higher time frames. On Bitcoin’s weekly chart, he pointed out the rising price highs against falling momentum, using straightforward strength and momentum indicators. Although these signals are not standalone indicators, they provide critical context for the current market dynamics.
The Total2 market has registered a “triple top” on the weekly chart, facing resistance between $1.71 trillion and $1.74 trillion—an area Kevin considers pivotal. As the weekly RSI and MACD indicators roll over, he noted that the market is resetting precisely where it should amid historically low late-summer liquidity. “Q3 is never a good quarter for crypto,” Kevin said, underscoring the predictable nature of the current market conditions.
The Role of USDT Dominance
Kevin also highlighted the importance of USDT dominance as a reliable inter-market compass. Describing it as “the greatest chart ever,” he walked through a macro descending triangle with a flat-bottom support near 3.9% to 3.7%. This pattern, he explained, has consistently mapped crypto cycle lows and highs for the past two years. Each approach to the flat bottom has resulted in a base formation, while rejections at the downtrend have coincided with market inflections.
Key Support Levels to Watch
From a tactical standpoint, Kevin identified a three-month BTC liquidity “heat map” shelf near $106.8K and the 21-week EMA—the bull-market support band—around $109.2K as natural magnets for Bitcoin’s price. He stressed that losing the $106.8K level could jeopardize the current cycle, though a temporary dip into that area to “swipe the liquidity” would align with previous resets. Kevin emphasized that the $98K level should not be decisively broken, as there is substantial support within this range.
Looking Ahead to Q4
Looking forward, Kevin tied structural signals to a macroeconomic checklist, arguing that lasting cycle tops and bottoms align with fundamental catalysts rather than charts alone. He cited past events, such as the 2021 inflation spike and the Fed’s interest rate hikes, as key drivers of market cycles. However, he sees no such macro trigger today that could end the current cycle.
Kevin pointed to the upcoming economic calendar—core PCE, CPI, and labor data in early October—as decisive for market direction. “Sometime in mid-October… we’ll start to have an idea of where this market is really going to go,” he said. If Bitcoin holds key support and favorable macroeconomic data emerges, the probabilities favor a bullish move as Q4 unfolds.
The Road to Recovery
Kevin also addressed volatility positioning, noting that the weekly Bollinger Band Width has printed record-low readings three times this cycle, each time in Q3. These episodes began with a downside break of 18-29% before surging to fresh highs. While a test of the lower weekly band near $101K is possible, Kevin believes the broader $107K–$98K corridor should act as a springboard for recovery.
He was clear about invalidation and upside triggers, labeling $125K as a “major top for now.” The market needs to achieve weekly and monthly closes above this level to confirm a trend continuation. On dominance, Kevin highlighted 59.0% and 60.28% as near-term resistance levels that could fuel a BTC-led phase if reclaimed. Otherwise, he expects leadership to rotate back to altcoins once Bitcoin stabilizes and USDT dominance prints a lower high.
The Bottom Line
In conclusion, Kevin’s message is one of restraint and opportunism. “Hold $107K to $98K,” he reiterated, advising traders to remain patient and manage risks. He warned that if macroeconomic conditions remain benign and Bitcoin continues to deteriorate, traders should be prepared to reassess their cycle thesis. Until then, he urged traders to respect seasonal patterns, monitor inter-market signals, and let higher-time-frame levels guide their decisions. “Being right is the best pat on the back you can get,” Kevin said, emphasizing the importance of sound analysis over clickbait predictions.
At press time, Bitcoin stood at $109,607, leaving investors eagerly watching to see if the crucial support levels will hold.
Steve Gregory is a lawyer in the United States who specializes in licensing for cryptocurrency companies and products. Steve began his career as an attorney in 2015 but made the switch to working in cryptocurrency full time shortly after joining the original team at Gemini Trust Company, an early cryptocurrency exchange based in New York City. Steve then joined CEX.io and was able to launch their regulated US-based cryptocurrency. Steve then went on to become the CEO at currency.com when he ran for four years and was able to lead currency.com to being fully acquired in 2025.
