As we edge into the final quarter of 2025, cryptocurrency traders are poised to navigate a landscape that promises both opportunities and challenges. A thorough analysis by CoinDesk’s Omkar Godbole highlights several key indicators that could shape market movements in the coming months. Let’s delve into the factors that traders should keep an eye on to make informed decisions.
Bullish Seasonality for Bitcoin and Ether
Historically, the last quarter of the year has been a fertile period for Bitcoin (BTC) and Ether (ETH), the two largest cryptocurrencies by market capitalization. Since 2013, Bitcoin has consistently delivered impressive returns in Q4, boasting an average gain of around 85%, according to Coinglass data. Notably, November emerges as the most bullish month, with average gains of 46%, while October follows with a respectable 21% increase.
Ether, although known for its strong performance in the first quarter, doesn’t lag far behind in Q4. This trend underscores a potential uptick for both cryptocurrencies, giving traders a reason to be optimistic as the year draws to a close. However, it’s crucial to approach these historical patterns with a balanced perspective, as past performance doesn’t guarantee future results.
BTC’s 50-Week SMA as a Key Support
Despite Bitcoin’s recent 5% price drop, which aligns with bearish technical signals, there’s a silver lining for the bulls. The 50-week simple moving average (SMA), currently hovering around $98,900, has historically acted as a robust support level. This SMA has marked the end of corrective pullbacks during the bull run that kicked off in early 2023.
As long as prices remain above this critical level, traders might find solace in the ongoing bull market’s resilience. However, a breach could shift the focus to the 200-day SMA at $104,200, sparking concerns about further declines. Thus, keeping a close watch on these moving averages could offer valuable insights into Bitcoin’s trajectory.
XRP/BTC Compression and Potential Breakout
XRP, often dubbed the “U.S. government coin” by some analysts, has experienced a notable 32% surge this year. Yet, against Bitcoin, the XRP/BTC pair remains trapped in a lengthy sideways trading range. This compression, spanning over four years, has resulted in low volatility.
Interestingly, recent price action near the upper boundary of the range hints at a potential bullish breakout. Should XRP break free from this prolonged consolidation, it could trigger a significant rally relative to Bitcoin. Traders should be prepared for this possibility, as the accumulated energy from this squeeze could soon be unleashed.
Bearish Signals from the SMST ETF
Turning to cautionary tales, the Defiance Daily Target 2x Short MSTR ETF (SMST), which inversely tracks the daily percentage change in MicroStrategy’s (MSTR) share price, is sending bullish signals. This leveraged anti-Strategy ETF has climbed to a five-month high, forming an inverse head-and-shoulders pattern—a classic bullish reversal indicator.
While this might seem promising for the ETF, it actually signals bearish sentiments for both Bitcoin and MicroStrategy, the largest publicly listed BTC holder. Traders should be aware of this inverse relationship and its implications for broader market dynamics.
Dollar Index’s Double Bottom and Its Implications
The U.S. dollar index has recently shown resilience, establishing a double bottom around 96.30. This pattern suggests a potential path of least resistance on the higher side, particularly if the index continues beyond 100.26—confirming a double bottom breakout.
Such a move could open the door for the index to reach 104.00, potentially creating headwinds for risk assets, including cryptocurrencies. Conversely, a failure below 96.00 might encourage increased risk-taking in financial markets, offering a glimmer of hope for crypto enthusiasts.
Nvidia’s Potential Topping Pattern
Nvidia (NVDA), a bellwether for risk assets, is currently flirting with the upper end of a broadening channel. The rally, which has stalled since late July, could indicate bullish exhaustion. If Nvidia’s price declines from this point, it might signal a risk-off period in global markets, spilling over into the cryptocurrency space.
In summary, Q4 of 2025 presents a mix of bullish and bearish indicators for cryptocurrency traders. While historical trends point towards a positive outlook for Bitcoin and Ether, caution is warranted given the potential headwinds from the dollar index and Nvidia’s price movements. By staying vigilant and considering these key factors, traders can better position themselves to navigate the evolving market landscape.
Steve Gregory is a lawyer in the United States who specializes in licensing for cryptocurrency companies and products. Steve began his career as an attorney in 2015 but made the switch to working in cryptocurrency full time shortly after joining the original team at Gemini Trust Company, an early cryptocurrency exchange based in New York City. Steve then joined CEX.io and was able to launch their regulated US-based cryptocurrency. Steve then went on to become the CEO at currency.com when he ran for four years and was able to lead currency.com to being fully acquired in 2025.
