In the ever-evolving world of cryptocurrency, where fortunes can be made and lost in the blink of an eye, Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX and current head of crypto venture fund Maelstrom, has once again stirred the pot. Known for his bold predictions and unfiltered commentary, Hayes recently sold a significant portion of his holdings in Hyperliquid’s HYPE tokens, just weeks after predicting a meteoric rise for the asset. The move has left the crypto community buzzing and speculating about the future of the HYPE token.
A Sudden Turn of Events
On September 21, blockchain analytics service Lookonchain reported that Arthur Hayes unloaded 96,628 HYPE tokens, raking in an impressive $5.1 million. This sale netted him a profit of approximately $823,000, or 19%, in just a month’s time. The proceeds, as Hayes cheekily announced on social media platform X, were destined for a deposit on a new Ferrari 849 Testarossa. The jest, while characteristic of Hayes’s irreverent style, sparked a wave of criticism from traders who accused him of artificially inflating HYPE’s value before making a quick exit.
Addressing the Backlash
In response to the backlash, Hayes defended his decision, attributing the sale to strategic concerns highlighted by his firm, Maelstrom. “This is why we dumped $HYPE today. But don’t worry 126x is still possible 2028 is a long way off,” he clarified. This statement was an attempt to reassure followers that his long-term bullish outlook on HYPE remains intact, despite the immediate challenges.
Maelstrom elaborated on these challenges in a detailed X post, describing the upcoming supply unlock as HYPE’s “first true test.” Starting November 29, a staggering 237.8 million HYPE tokens will begin vesting linearly over two years, introducing nearly $500 million worth of tokens into the market each month. With current prices hovering around $50 per token, this amounts to an $11.9 billion increase in circulating supply. Maelstrom warned that Hyperliquid’s buyback program could only absorb about 17% of this influx, potentially leaving a $410 million monthly surplus.
The Market’s Reaction
The anticipated supply shock has raised questions about whether the market is prepared to absorb such a large volume of tokens. Maelstrom framed this as a natural challenge for a rapidly expanding protocol but cautioned that early developers and insiders might be tempted to liquidate their holdings. Even substantial decentralized autonomous treasury (DAT) deals, like Sonnet’s $583 million HYPE raise, may not be sufficient to counterbalance the scale of these unlocks.
A Long-Term Vision
Hayes’s recent actions stand in stark contrast to his August 27 blog post, where he likened Hyperliquid to a “decentralized Binance” and projected a 126-fold increase in HYPE’s value by 2028. This optimistic outlook was predicated on several bold assumptions: a $10 trillion stablecoin market, Hyperliquid capturing a trading share on par with Binance, and stable fee structures. Despite the sale of his tokens, Hayes maintains this long-term vision, suggesting that the upcoming supply unlock is merely a hurdle rather than a fatal setback. “2028 is a long way off,” he insists.
Hyperliquid has indeed established itself as a formidable force in the realm of decentralized perpetual futures. Its HYPE token is integral to governance, staking, and fee distribution within the platform. The critical question now is whether the market can effectively absorb the nearly $12 billion in new supply. If it can, Hayes’s forecast might still come to fruition. If not, his predictions may prove overly ambitious.
Balancing Optimism with Caution
For investors and traders, the situation presents both opportunities and risks. On one hand, Hayes’s past success and industry insight lend credibility to his long-term predictions. On the other, the looming supply increase and potential sell-offs by insiders pose significant challenges that could impact HYPE’s price trajectory.
As the crypto community watches closely, one thing is certain: Arthur Hayes’s actions and words will continue to influence market sentiment. Whether his Ferrari-fueled jest turns out to be a savvy financial maneuver or a misstep in crypto forecasting remains to be seen. In the fast-paced and often unpredictable world of cryptocurrency, only time will tell if Hayes’s bold predictions will come to pass.
Steve Gregory is a lawyer in the United States who specializes in licensing for cryptocurrency companies and products. Steve began his career as an attorney in 2015 but made the switch to working in cryptocurrency full time shortly after joining the original team at Gemini Trust Company, an early cryptocurrency exchange based in New York City. Steve then joined CEX.io and was able to launch their regulated US-based cryptocurrency. Steve then went on to become the CEO at currency.com when he ran for four years and was able to lead currency.com to being fully acquired in 2025.
