Bitcoin, the leading cryptocurrency, has been on a turbulent ride lately, with its value experiencing significant fluctuations. After the U.S. Federal Reserve’s recent decision to cut interest rates, Bitcoin initially surged to nearly $118,000, inching closer to its all-time high. However, this upward momentum was short-lived as the market encountered renewed uncertainty. Despite this setback, experts remain optimistic about Bitcoin’s long-term prospects, particularly as September 21 approaches—a date that could prove pivotal for the cryptocurrency’s price trajectory.
Will September 21 Mark the Start of a New Bull Run?
As the crypto community buzzes with anticipation, market analyst Timothy Peterson has coined September 21 as “Bitcoin Bottom Day.” According to Peterson, Bitcoin has historically finished the year higher 70% of the time after this date, with a median increase exceeding 50%. His analysis suggests that the odds of a price surge are significantly favorable, potentially marking the beginning of a new bull run.
Peterson points out that two of the three major downturns in Bitcoin’s history took place during established bear markets in 2018 and 2022—conditions that don’t mirror the current market scenario. This leads him to believe that the chances of a price increase this year are closer to 90%. Furthermore, Bitcoin’s track record indicates a strong likelihood of maintaining its gains six months post-September 21, with a 70% probability of not dipping below the $100,000 mark again.
Analysts Warn of ‘Sell the News’ Bitcoin Phase
Ryan Lee, chief analyst at cryptocurrency exchange Bitget, highlights the recent 25-basis-point rate cut by the Fed as a catalyst that initially boosted Bitcoin’s price, pushing it briefly above $117,000. This cut, the first in nine months, signals increased liquidity in the market. However, Lee warns that the Fed’s median projection of only 50 basis points in total cuts for the year could dampen some of the enthusiasm, potentially leading to volatility as traders recalibrate their strategies.
Historically, Bitcoin has seen a dip of 5% to 8% following rate cuts before resuming its upward trend, suggesting a possible “sell the news” phase in the coming days. Despite these fluctuations, Lee remains optimistic about the macroeconomic environment. He argues that lower yields on money-market funds (MMFs) will likely drive capital toward alternative investments, such as cryptocurrencies. With approximately $7.2 trillion currently held in cash-like instruments, Bitcoin is poised to serve as a hedge in this risk-on climate.
The Road Ahead: Bullish Projections and Potential Roadblocks
Looking to the future, Lee forecasts that Bitcoin may consolidate in the near term before aiming for prices between $123,000 and $150,000, should additional rate cuts occur. Analysts at Bitfinex share a similarly positive outlook. They predict that with three expected rate cuts by the end of the year and steady inflows into exchange-traded funds (ETFs), Bitcoin could reach between $125,000 and $135,000 by year-end.
However, they also caution that if inflation or economic growth data impede the Fed’s ability to implement further cuts, Bitcoin might stabilize within a range of $110,000 to $115,000. This stabilization would be supported by institutional participation and ETF assets under management, providing a solid floor for Bitcoin’s price.
Balancing Optimism with Caution
As September 21 looms, the crypto world is abuzz with speculation and analysis. While the potential for a significant price surge is enticing, analysts urge caution. The market is inherently volatile, and external economic factors could influence Bitcoin’s trajectory. Nonetheless, with historical patterns and favorable macroeconomic conditions aligning, the community remains hopeful for a bullish turn.
In conclusion, September 21 could indeed be a game-changer for Bitcoin. Whether it marks the start of a new bull run or simply another chapter in the cryptocurrency’s volatile journey, only time will tell. As always, investors are advised to stay informed and consider both the risks and opportunities that lie ahead in the ever-evolving crypto landscape.
Steve Gregory is a lawyer in the United States who specializes in licensing for cryptocurrency companies and products. Steve began his career as an attorney in 2015 but made the switch to working in cryptocurrency full time shortly after joining the original team at Gemini Trust Company, an early cryptocurrency exchange based in New York City. Steve then joined CEX.io and was able to launch their regulated US-based cryptocurrency. Steve then went on to become the CEO at currency.com when he ran for four years and was able to lead currency.com to being fully acquired in 2025.
