As the world watches anxiously for the Federal Reserve’s imminent policy announcement, Bitcoin enthusiasts are abuzz with speculation about what the decision might mean for the cryptocurrency market. Despite the typical market volatility surrounding Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings, some analysts are confidently predicting an “Uptober” rally for Bitcoin, regardless of the Fed’s stance on interest rates.
Market Movements: Bitcoin Holds Steady
Bitcoin is currently trading at $116,236 as of 14:04 UTC on September 17, marking a modest 1% increase over the past 24 hours. The cryptocurrency has managed to stay above a critical support level, which is reassuring to investors who are wary of potential downturns. The market’s focal point, however, remains the Federal Reserve’s policy announcement, which often causes ripples across global financial markets.
Dean Crypto Trades, a prominent analyst on X (formerly Twitter), highlighted that Bitcoin is currently only about 7% above its post-election local peak. In contrast, traditional assets like the S&P 500 and gold have risen significantly more, with increases of 9% and a whopping 36% respectively. According to Dean, this compression suggests that Bitcoin might be poised for a significant move. However, he cautions that the cryptocurrency could form a “lower high” before any substantial rally, indicating that investors should remain vigilant.
Seasonal Trends and Historical Patterns
History provides some clues to Bitcoin’s potential trajectory. Lark Davis, a well-known figure in the cryptocurrency space, has pointed out that the cryptocurrency often rallies following the September FOMC meetings. He notes that every decision since 2020, with the exception of the bear market in 2022, has been followed by a strong rally. Davis argues that this trend is influenced more by seasonal dynamics than the Fed’s rate decisions themselves. As we transition into what some traders affectionately dub “Uptober,” there’s growing optimism about Bitcoin’s performance.
This seasonal pattern might be attributed to broader market cycles and investor sentiment, which often become more bullish in the final quarter of the year. Additionally, with Bitcoin having experienced a significant compression compared to other assets, it appears to be gearing up for its next significant move.
Technical Analysis: Consolidation and Breakout Patterns
Technical analysis offers further insights into Bitcoin’s current market behavior. According to CoinDesk Research’s technical analysis data model, Bitcoin experienced a modest rise of approximately 0.9% during the analysis window from September 16 to 17. The cryptocurrency reached a session high of $117,317 early on September 17 before entering a consolidation phase.
Throughout the trading session, Bitcoin tested the $116,400–$116,600 range multiple times, solidifying this band as a short-term support zone. In a notable move, between 11:39 and 12:38 UTC, Bitcoin attempted a breakout, with prices briefly spiking to $116,551 on higher trading volumes. This highlighted a consolidation-breakout pattern, albeit with modest gains. For now, Bitcoin remains firmly supported above $116,000, with resistance looming near $117,300.
Chart Analysis: Short-Term and Long-Term Perspectives
Examining the latest 24-hour chart ending at 14:04 UTC on September 17 reveals that Bitcoin sits at $116,236 after retreating from intraday highs of nearly $117,295. This consolidation within the $116,000–$116,500 range underscores its role as a short-term support level.
Looking at the one-month chart, Bitcoin has climbed steadily from lows near $108,000 in late August to recent highs above $117,000. This upward trend, despite some consolidation in recent sessions, suggests the market is taking a breather before its next significant move. Such pauses are common as traders assess market conditions, especially in anticipation of major announcements like the Fed’s rate decision.
Balancing Optimism with Caution
While the current indicators are promising, it’s essential to approach Bitcoin investment with a balanced perspective. The cryptocurrency market is notoriously volatile, and external factors, including central bank decisions and macroeconomic conditions, can significantly impact prices.
Looking ahead, analysts like Dean Crypto Trades and Lark Davis provide a cautiously optimistic outlook for Bitcoin, emphasizing its potential for a rally as we approach October. However, they also acknowledge potential pitfalls, such as the formation of a “lower high” or unexpected shifts in investor sentiment.
Ultimately, the prediction of an “Uptober” rally underscores the complex interplay of historical patterns, technical analysis, and market sentiment. As Bitcoin enthusiasts and investors brace for the Fed’s announcement, the market remains poised for its next move, with optimism and caution walking hand in hand.
Steve Gregory is a lawyer in the United States who specializes in licensing for cryptocurrency companies and products. Steve began his career as an attorney in 2015 but made the switch to working in cryptocurrency full time shortly after joining the original team at Gemini Trust Company, an early cryptocurrency exchange based in New York City. Steve then joined CEX.io and was able to launch their regulated US-based cryptocurrency. Steve then went on to become the CEO at currency.com when he ran for four years and was able to lead currency.com to being fully acquired in 2025.
