Cryptocurrency markets are once again in the spotlight as a familiar pattern from December 2024 re-emerges, raising concerns among investors and analysts alike. This time, the cautionary tale is recounted by crypto analyst Maartunn (@JA_Maartun), who warned on September 14 about a striking market divergence: speculative leverage soaring in altcoins while Bitcoin’s derivatives positioning remains largely unchanged. As history hints at repetitive tendencies, Maartunn’s insights serve as a potential harbinger for those attuned to crypto market rhythms.
The Warning: Open Interest Divergence
At the heart of Maartunn’s analysis is the concept of open interest—the notional value of active futures and perpetual positions across trading venues. Simply put, open interest reflects the total money and active bets in the market. When it rises, it often signifies an influx of speculative capital. According to Maartunn, altcoin open interest is currently “through the roof,” while Bitcoin, which he describes as “the anchor of the whole market,” remains flat.
This divergence is reminiscent of late 2024, when a similar pattern culminated in a dramatic market downturn. “History doesn’t repeat, but it often rhymes,” Maartunn noted, suggesting that the current market climate should not be ignored by prudent investors.
Crypto’s ‘Musical Chairs’ Moment
To elucidate the dynamics at play, Maartunn likens the current phase to a high-stakes game of musical chairs. As long as money flows into the market remain positive, “the party’s in full swing, and everyone feels like a genius.” However, when the music stops, which could be triggered by an adverse headline, an unexpected macroeconomic shock, or simply a waning appetite for risk, the scramble for safety begins. In such scenarios, there’s often not enough “chairs” for everyone, resulting in frantic liquidations and heightened volatility, particularly among speculative altcoins.
This metaphor underscores the inherent risks in crypto’s derivatives-driven microstructure. As Maartunn noted, when liquidity retreats to safety, correlations across the market rise, and those high-flying altcoins “get hit the hardest.” The aftermath is typically characterized by a sharp markdown followed by a period of tedious consolidation, a dynamic experienced during the three-month “chop modus” after the December 2024 crash.
A Balanced Perspective
While Maartunn’s warning isn’t a call to panic, it highlights a situational risk that savvy investors must acknowledge. His message is not about predicting an imminent crash but rather about recognizing that the “growing split in the market” between exuberant altcoin leverage and a subdued Bitcoin base “can’t last forever.”
In his assessment, the current level of risk has undeniably increased, and though “the music is absolutely still playing,” it’s wise for investors to know where the emergency exits are. The open question remains whether this is merely the market enjoying the music before another painful dip, as seen in December 2024, or if this time truly is different.
Looking Ahead
As the total crypto market cap stands at a staggering $4.0 trillion, the market’s future trajectory remains uncertain. Maartunn’s thesis hinges on the observable setup: a momentum-chasing build-up of altcoin derivatives exposure without a corresponding expansion in Bitcoin’s positioning. If history serves as a guide, this divergence is less a precise timing tool and more of a warning label on the current phase of the cycle.
Ultimately, the market tends to pivot not when everyone expects it, but when liquidity blinks. As investors navigate these turbulent waters, the lessons from the past serve as crucial guideposts. Whether this time will mirror the late-2024 scenario or chart a different course remains to be seen, but one thing is clear: the stakes are high, and the crypto market’s inherent volatility demands both caution and vigilance.
Steve Gregory is a lawyer in the United States who specializes in licensing for cryptocurrency companies and products. Steve began his career as an attorney in 2015 but made the switch to working in cryptocurrency full time shortly after joining the original team at Gemini Trust Company, an early cryptocurrency exchange based in New York City. Steve then joined CEX.io and was able to launch their regulated US-based cryptocurrency. Steve then went on to become the CEO at currency.com when he ran for four years and was able to lead currency.com to being fully acquired in 2025.
