Bitcoin, Ether, and XRP are under close scrutiny this September as the cryptocurrency market navigates the biggest whale sell-off in years. Traders and investors are weighing the implications of this massive distribution against signs of long-term accumulation and the continued resilience of altcoins.
A Whale of a Sell-Off
On Monday, Bitcoin was holding just under $112,000, a level that reflects the impact of substantial whale activity. According to on-chain trackers at CryptoQuant, over 100,000 BTC, valued at approximately $12.7 billion, have exited major wallets in the past month. This marks the most significant coin distribution in 2025, with whale reserves depleting by 114,920 BTC. The sell-off briefly pushed Bitcoin’s price below $108,000 last week, echoing the aggressive position trimming last seen in July 2022.
CryptoQuant analyst known by the handle ‘caueconomy’ highlighted that the portfolios of major players are still shrinking, which could continue to exert downward pressure on Bitcoin. The sell-off coincides with softer ETF inflows and reduced trading volumes, indicating that the market is currently leaning on broader macroeconomic catalysts.
Long-Term Stability in View
Despite the immediate pressures, the longer-term outlook for Bitcoin seems more optimistic. Bitcoin is currently down only 13% from its mid-August all-time high, a decline that is considerably less severe than historical pullbacks. CryptoQuant analyst Dave the Wave pointed out that the one-year moving average, which stood at $52,000 a year ago, has now risen to $94,000. This trend suggests a structural uptrend, with expectations of breaking through the $100,000 mark in October.
Ryan Lee, chief analyst at Bitget, supports this optimistic view with supply metrics indicating sustained long-term confidence. He noted that Bitcoin’s illiquid supply has reached a record 14.3 million BTC, with over 70% of coins held in wallets with minimal spending history. Lee anticipates price stabilization within the $105,000–$118,000 range, supported by ETF flows and bullish MACD signals.
Ethereum and Altcoin Dynamics
Ethereum, trading around $4,307, is also being closely watched. Lee projects a trading range of $4,100 to $4,600, contingent on steady ETF demand. He added that upcoming network upgrades and decentralized finance (DeFi) catalysts could trigger independent gains for Ethereum.
Altcoins are showing signs of strength amidst the turbulence. XRP has gained 2.3% to reach $2.96, while Solana’s SOL has risen 3.2% to $214. Dogecoin has also extended its rally, climbing 10.5% over the week to $0.236. Cardano’s ADA has seen a 6% boost over the last seven days, reaching $0.865.
Sentiment and Market Mood
Despite these gains, overall sentiment in the crypto market remains cautious. Alex Kuptsikevich of FxPro noted that total cryptocurrency market capitalization increased by 2.5% last week to $3.85 trillion but still lags behind its 50-day average. This gap is seen as a sign of underlying risk aversion. The sentiment index, which slipped into fear territory at 44 over the weekend, recovered slightly to 51 on Monday, indicating that traders are adopting a wait-and-see approach.
September’s traditional weakness adds another layer of complexity to the market landscape, with macroeconomic pressures continuing to loom large. Jeff Mei, COO at BTSE, emphasized the importance of upcoming U.S. inflation data due midweek. “Higher-than-expected numbers would cause Bitcoin and Ethereum to decline, while lower numbers could trigger a rally,” Mei commented in a Telegram message.
Navigating the Uncertainty
As September unfolds, the crypto market faces a critical test. The recent whale sell-off serves as a reminder of the volatility and unpredictability inherent in cryptocurrencies. However, the resilience displayed by Bitcoin and several altcoins, coupled with positive long-term indicators, suggests that the market is not without its bright spots.
Traders and investors will be closely monitoring macroeconomic developments, ETF flows, and technological advancements within the crypto ecosystem. While the road ahead may be fraught with challenges, the potential for growth and innovation remains compelling. As always, navigating this landscape requires a careful balance of caution and optimism.
Steve Gregory is a lawyer in the United States who specializes in licensing for cryptocurrency companies and products. Steve began his career as an attorney in 2015 but made the switch to working in cryptocurrency full time shortly after joining the original team at Gemini Trust Company, an early cryptocurrency exchange based in New York City. Steve then joined CEX.io and was able to launch their regulated US-based cryptocurrency. Steve then went on to become the CEO at currency.com when he ran for four years and was able to lead currency.com to being fully acquired in 2025.
