In a recent interview aired on September 4, Henrik Zeberg, the Head Economist at SwissBlock, painted a vivid picture of the crypto landscape, predicting a monumental surge in Bitcoin and Ethereum prices before an inevitable crash reminiscent of the dot-com bust. Speaking with Dutch host Paul Buitink, Zeberg outlined a two-phase trajectory: a “melt-up” fueled by liquidity and momentum, followed by a downturn triggered by a strengthening dollar and tightening financial conditions.
A High-Stakes Climb
Zeberg’s analysis suggests that the crypto market is poised for a dramatic upswing, projecting Bitcoin to skyrocket to between $165,000 and $175,000. Ethereum, too, isn’t left behind, with expectations to reach near $17,000. These projections are underpinned by the assumption of a late-cycle altcoin boom. Zeberg cautions, however, that this surge will be anything but gradual. “When things are moving in crypto and into the final phase of a bubble, it can be very, very fast,” he noted. This aligns with other bullish forecasts, such as those discussed in Analyst Defies BTC Bearish Panic: Sees Bitcoin Soaring to $200K in Q4 on Fed Policy Shift.
The economist’s roadmap places us late in the business cycle, yet not at the tipping point. He pointed to the absence of traditional recession signals in yields, credit spreads, and jobless claims, suggesting the music hasn’t stopped yet. “The music is still playing and you can still get a drink at the bar,” he quipped, extending his Titanic metaphor.
The Dollar’s Dominance
Central to Zeberg’s thesis is the role of the US dollar. He anticipates a bottoming-out of the Dollar Index (DXY), followed by a rally to levels between 117 and 120. This “wrecking ball,” as he describes it, could strike risk assets hard, as global demand for the dollar spikes. “If we’re going to see somewhat of a crisis, all this debt will need to be settled in dollars,” he asserted, highlighting the dollar’s enduring clout as “the cleanest shirt” in a messy global laundry basket.
In this scenario, liquidity preference takes precedence over risk appetite, tightening credit and triggering deleveraging—especially in non-US markets burdened with dollar liabilities. Zeberg argues that monetary policy might temporarily buoy markets, but the wise will eventually see this as a sign of underlying weakness rather than salvation. He predicts the Federal Reserve might introduce a modest rate cut of 25 basis points this month, though he doesn’t discount a more substantial move.
A Looming Bust
Though Zeberg forecasts a short-lived deflationary bust—lasting six to nine months—he warns of a subsequent stagflationary phase where conventional monetary tools become ineffectual. He was notably critical of the central banking orthodoxy, lambasting what he called the “hubris” of micromanaging inflation to a precise 2%.
In a broader commodity context, Zeberg expects gold to dip significantly during a liquidity crunch before bouncing back, mirroring the patterns observed during 2008. He foresees gold’s long-term trajectory reaching as high as $35,000 per ounce by the 2030s, anchored by a potential “monetary reset” that redefines value through a ledger-based system.
The Risk to Crypto Projects
Zeberg didn’t mince words regarding the vulnerability of crypto projects, suggesting that “99%” may falter, leaving only a select few to endure, akin to the survivors of the dot-com era. He criticized the speculative nature of many tokens, attributing their prolonged existence to an era of easy money. This sentiment echoes the cautious optimism expressed by the Cardano Founder: Bitcoin to Hit $250K Before End of Bull Market.
As he looks ahead, Zeberg remains vigilant for economic catalysts. While he downplays the likelihood of a single trigger, he describes a scenario where high rates, falling real income, and rising delinquencies create a toxic environment for banks and corporations. The recent shifts in front-end yields, credit spreads, and the dollar’s trajectory are his indicators to watch.
The crypto market, at press time, remains on edge, with Bitcoin trading at $111,528. The road ahead, as Zeberg sees it, is marked by both opportunity and peril. As investors and enthusiasts brace for the coming waves, the question remains: will they ride the tide or be swept away when the bubble bursts?
Source
This article is based on: Bitcoin To $175k, Ethereum To $17k Before Dot-Com Style Crash, Economist Warns
Further Reading
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Steve Gregory is a lawyer in the United States who specializes in licensing for cryptocurrency companies and products. Steve began his career as an attorney in 2015 but made the switch to working in cryptocurrency full time shortly after joining the original team at Gemini Trust Company, an early cryptocurrency exchange based in New York City. Steve then joined CEX.io and was able to launch their regulated US-based cryptocurrency. Steve then went on to become the CEO at currency.com when he ran for four years and was able to lead currency.com to being fully acquired in 2025.
