The Real Story of Bitcoin Halvings: From Block 210,000 to Six-Figure BTC

I still remember refreshing a block explorer at 2 a.m., palms sweaty, waiting for block 840,000 to roll in. The chat was chaos. Fees were going vertical. Runes degens were elbowing for block space. When the halving finally hit, the miner collected more in fees than the subsidy. Wild night. I’ve traded through all four halvings now, and the rhythm of these events still messes with your head—in a good way if you’re prepared.

What is the Bitcoin halving?

Quick, plain English: every 210,000 blocks (roughly four years), the network cuts the block reward in half. New BTC hitting the market gets slashed. In April 2024, the daily issuance dropped from about 900 BTC to ~450 BTC, taking the block subsidy from 6.25 to 3.125 BTC. That’s programmatic scarcity—not vibes. The supply curve is known. The timeline is known. The only unknown is how humans will behave around it. (ft.com)

Here’s the kicker from 2024: the halving block itself became the priciest block ever mined. Users spent roughly 37.7 BTC in fees to squeeze into that piece of history, largely thanks to the launch of the Runes protocol on the same day. I watched fees spike so fast it felt unreal. (cointelegraph.com)

The four halvings at a glance

Halving | Date | Block | Reward (BTC) Before → After | Price on Halving Day | Months to Next ATH | Notes

—————————————-

1st | Nov 28, 2012 | 210,000 | 50 → 25 | ~$12.35 | ~12 | Classic early-cycle mania

2nd | Jul 9, 2016 | 420,000 | 25 → 12.5 | ~$650.63 | ~17 | ICO froth, miner upgrades

3rd | May 11, 2020 | 630,000 | 12.5 → 6.25 | ~$8,821 | ~18 | DeFi summer → 2021 peak

4th | Apr 20, 2024 (UTC) | 840,000 | 6.25 → 3.125 | ~$64,969 | ~16 (to Aug 2025) | Fee bonanza via Runes

Data points for dates, rewards, and day-of prices come from standard halving trackers; the 2024 halving time is UTC on block 840,000. The “months to ATH” for the fourth halving reflects the fresh highs set in August 2025. (calendar.bitbo.io)

Why it matters now (2025)

As of today (August 19, 2025), Bitcoin is trading around the mid-$110Ks after tagging fresh record highs near $124.5K last week. That new ATH matters: it confirms the fourth-cycle uptrend pushed beyond the March 2024 pre-halving peak. Not gonna lie—I thought we might stall longer, but here we are. (barrons.com, investopedia.com)

Two structural shifts changed this cycle’s feel:

• Spot Bitcoin ETFs in the U.S. have been a firehose of demand since approval in January 2024, with cumulative net inflows approaching $50 billion and total AUM around the $120B+ neighborhood by early July 2025. That’s not retail FOMO—it’s pipes into traditional capital. (axios.com, theblock.co)

• Hashrate has marched to new highs into 2025, even after subsidies were halved. The network briefly flirted with the 1,000 EH/s mark in January. Translation: miners kept deploying, betting on higher long-run prices and, yes, fees. (cointelegraph.com)

And about those fees: the Runes launch didn’t just juice a single block—it kicked off a period where non-standard activity contributed meaningfully to miner revenue and transaction volume. In 2024, fees spiked to unprecedented levels around the halving, and Runes-related traffic grabbed a major share of on-chain transactions for months. That fee tailwind helped cushion the blow from the subsidy cut. (galaxy.com)

How long do cycles last?

Historically, peaks have tended to arrive 12–18 months after a halving. 2012 → ~12 months. 2016 → ~17 months. 2020 → ~18 months. This cycle? It broke pattern early, with an ATH in March 2024 before the halving, then another ATH in August 2025—likely the ETF era bending the usual curve. Different liquidity dynamics, same supply math. (coingecko.com, axios.com)

Trading strategies I use around halvings

I’ve tried the galaxy-brain stuff. Most of it underperforms discipline. What’s actually worked for me:

• DCA with teeth: I ramp contributions during pre-halving boredom, then taper as momentum turns parabolic. Keeps me from panic-chasing green candles.

• “Issuer bleed” watchlist: When subsidy drops, weak miners cough up coins or capitulate. Accumulating on those miner-driven dips has paid me more than timing the exact halving day.

• Respect the ETFs: Flows drive narrative now. I track daily ETF net inflows/outflows like a hawk; they’ve become real-time demand signals. (theblock.co)

• Fee regimes matter: Elevated fee epochs can front-run volatility. When I see mempool pressure rising, I trim leverage and widen stops. Runes made that painfully clear in 2024. (galaxy.com)

• Options as brakes, not gas: I’ll buy protective puts into macro risk events; selling covered calls on a slice of spot after big weekly moves has helped me sleep.

If you’re hedging inflation with stablecoins, here’s what I’d do…

• Park dry powder in high-quality, well-attested dollar stablecoins (USDT/USDC) with clear reserve disclosure. The stablecoin market is now north of $250B—liquidity isn’t the bottleneck it used to be. (reuters.com)

• Earn conservative yield via short-duration T‑bill–backed products or custodial accounts integrated with stablecoins—keep counterparty risk front and center.

• Ladder entries: convert stables to BTC on red days only; automate the rule so your emotions don’t interfere.

• Keep an emergency float in stables so you never have to sell BTC into weakness to cover life stuff.

Quick wins and best practices

• Use limit orders around big difficulty adjustments and ETF rebalance windows.

• Track miner metrics (hashrate, hashprice) for early stress signals.

• Don’t ignore fees; they’re a proxy for chain demand and miner health.

• Separate your “long-term conviction stack” from your “trade stack.” Different rules, different timeframes.

Real-world moments that taught me the most

• 2021 gut punch: I watched BTC crater into the $30Ks after a euphoric spring. I overtraded chop and paid tuition. Lesson: protect your mental capital; sit out the no-trend periods.

• April 2024 “Runes night”: Fees spiked, spreads widened, and my sleepy limit orders got skipped. I adjusted: started monitoring mempool pressure and paused aggressive entries when the fee market goes haywire. (cointelegraph.com)

• Summer 2025 ETF sprint: A string of billion-dollar net-inflow days had me stop trying to nitpick tops. When pipes are that full, I scale out slower. (theblock.co)

The halving takeaway (and how to use it)

Halvings don’t guarantee straight lines up. They do force time into the equation—less supply, same or more demand, eventually. In this cycle, ETF flows, a roaring hashrate, and a fee renaissance changed the cadence, but not the core story: programmed scarcity is undefeated… over time. If you’re trading it, treat halvings like multi-quarter positioning windows, not single-day events.

Anyway—back to the point. I plan the cycle, automate the boring stuff, and keep a flexible playbook for the weird days. If you want a cleaner execution layer, build dashboards that marry ETF flows, mempool pressure, and miner metrics. That’s why I lean on tools like vtrader.io to keep my signals organized and my emotions out of the driver’s seat.

Sources:

• https://www.ft.com/content/9399d969-1896-46dc-a047-30a6278dfbf9

• https://calendar.bitbo.io/halving-dates/

• https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-halving-users-spend-record-millions-block-space-runes-rare-satoshis

• https://www.theblock.co/post/361081/us-spot-bitcoin-etfs-approach-50b-in-total-net-inflows-after-1b-rebound-over-two-days

• https://www.barrons.com/articles/bitcoin-price-xrp-ethereum-cryptos-75b12cd3

• https://www.investopedia.com/bitcoin-ether-and-crypto-tied-stocks-drop-as-profit-taking-persists-11792515

• https://www.axios.com/newsletters/axios-crypto-b63cf32d-24ed-4a22-a7aa-707966179c4c

• https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-hashrate-all-time-high-january-2025

• https://www.galaxy.com/insights/research/2024-mid-year-mining/

• https://www.axios.com/newsletters/axios-crypto-487032fb-7418-4399-a698-b5005ba8b5f4

• https://www.axios.com/2024/01/10/sec-approves-spot-bitcoin-etfs-after-much-hype

• https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/stablecoins-fuel-liquidity-not-yet-money-mike-dolan-2025-08-13/