Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX and now a key figure at Maelstrom, a crypto-centric venture capital firm, has made a bold claim that’s capturing attention across the crypto world. On this last day of August 2025, Hayes asserts that Hyperliquid’s HYPE token could see a meteoric rise, potentially soaring 126 times its current value. This prediction isn’t just a shot in the dark; it’s backed by a detailed valuation model crafted by Maelstrom itself.
A New Paradigm in Decentralized Trading
Hyperliquid, a decentralized exchange operating on its own blockchain, distinguishes itself from traditional exchanges like Coinbase and Binance by being entirely on-chain. This means that every transaction, every movement of funds, happens transparently and securely on the blockchain. Traders flock to Hyperliquid for its perpetual futures contracts, a financial instrument that lets them speculate on cryptocurrency prices without worrying about an expiry date. The HYPE token, central to this ecosystem, serves as both a governance mechanism and a way for users to stake and reap rewards, all while benefiting from a portion of trading fees. As explored in our recent coverage, Hyperliquid’s HYPE Hits Record High Above $50 on Trading Boom, Token Buybacks, the token’s performance has already shown promising signs of growth.
Hayes argues that Hyperliquid is already a heavyweight in the decentralized perpetual futures market, commanding approximately two-thirds of the market share. “It’s like a decentralized Binance,” Hayes enthuses, drawing parallels to the centralized behemoth. Yet, unlike Binance, Hyperliquid relies solely on stablecoins for transactions, eschewing traditional banks. This, coupled with its agile team led by founder Jeff Yan, allows Hyperliquid to innovate at a pace that Hayes believes even rivals Binance.
The Numbers Game: 126x Upside Potential
The crux of Hayes’s thesis lies in the numbers. Maelstrom’s model begins with a bold projection: by 2028, stablecoins could balloon to a $10 trillion market. Drawing from Binance’s history, where daily trading volume often matched 26.4% of the stablecoin supply, Hayes extrapolates that Hyperliquid might see a staggering $2.6 trillion in trades every day.
Factor in the trading fees—around 0.03% per trade—and you’re looking at potential annual revenues of approximately $258 billion. Discounting these future revenues to present value using a 5% rate brings the figure to a whopping $5.16 trillion. When stacked against HYPE’s current valuation of $41 billion, Hayes arrives at his 126x upside prediction.
Yet, as with all grand forecasts, this one isn’t without its caveats. The model hinges on several assumptions: a stablecoin market reaching $10 trillion, Hyperliquid retaining a Binance-like market share, stable fees, and a consistent discount rate. Should any of these elements falter, Hayes’s ambitious outlook might not hold.
Beyond the Numbers: A Vision for the Future
Hayes wraps up his analysis with a bold proclamation: Hyperliquid could one day eclipse Binance as the world’s largest exchange. He envisions a future where Jeff Yan, Hyperliquid’s founder, might rival Binance CEO Changpeng Zhao in wealth. “The King is dead. Long live the King,” Hayes wrote, suggesting a seismic shift in the crypto exchange hierarchy. This follows a pattern of significant market movements, as seen in Metaplanet’s $2B $BTC Bet and the Rise of Bitcoin Hyper ($HYPER), highlighting the growing influence of decentralized platforms.
While the future remains uncertain, Hayes’s vision is rooted in the belief that as more individuals turn to stablecoins, the subsequent speculation will occur on-chain. In this scenario, Hyperliquid stands poised to lead the charge, with its HYPE token capturing the economic benefits.
As we stand on the cusp of September 2025, the crypto world watches with bated breath. Whether Hyperliquid can fulfill Hayes’s ambitious prophecy is yet to be seen. But one thing is certain: in the ever-evolving crypto landscape, nothing is set in stone, and the next big leap could be just around the corner.
Source
This article is based on: Hyperliquid’s HYPE Token: Why Arthur Hayes Thinks It Has 126x Upside Potential
Further Reading
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Steve Gregory is a lawyer in the United States who specializes in licensing for cryptocurrency companies and products. Steve began his career as an attorney in 2015 but made the switch to working in cryptocurrency full time shortly after joining the original team at Gemini Trust Company, an early cryptocurrency exchange based in New York City. Steve then joined CEX.io and was able to launch their regulated US-based cryptocurrency. Steve then went on to become the CEO at currency.com when he ran for four years and was able to lead currency.com to being fully acquired in 2025.
