Bitcoin enthusiasts find themselves at a familiar crossroads as August draws to a close. Hovering near $112,900, the cryptocurrency has experienced a rollercoaster of a month, with its trajectory for September remaining uncertain. Market participants are left pondering whether the notorious “September Curse” will once again cast a shadow or if a surprising upswing might set the stage for a bullish Q4.
The September Curse: Myth or Reality?
In the world of Bitcoin, September has historically been a month of caution. Daan Crypto Trades, a prominent voice on X, encapsulated the sentiment, highlighting that Bitcoin has never closed green in both August and September. This pattern, noted by many, has fostered a collective mindset that can sometimes become a self-fulfilling prophecy. Data from CoinGlass paints a sobering picture, with September yielding an average negative return of 3.8% over the past 12 years.
Yet, as with all trends, exceptions exist. Bitcoin managed to close September in the green four times, most notably in 2015, 2016, and the past two years. In 2023, a 3.9% uptick defied expectations, followed by a 7.3% rise in 2024, suggesting that past performance isn’t always indicative of future results. For more insights, see our recent coverage on what to expect from Bitcoin in September as network activity slows.
Macro Factors in Play
The broader macroeconomic landscape is poised to play a pivotal role in Bitcoin’s September narrative. The Federal Reserve’s policy meeting on September 16–17 looms large, with futures markets leaning towards a rate cut. Anthony Pompliano, a well-known figure in the crypto world, points to the mixed signals from the Fed, noting, “Jerome Powell has come out and said that he’s going to likely cut rates in September,” but cautions that the decision is fundamentally data-driven.
Bitcoin’s fate might rest on the outcome of several key economic indicators. The PCE price index, slated for release on August 29, will offer fresh insights into inflationary pressures. Following closely, the CPI and PPI data on September 11 could further sway the Federal Reserve’s decision-making process. Should a rate cut materialize, questions linger about whether it will ignite a bullish rally or merely meet market expectations, leaving prices stagnant.
Navigating Choppy Waters
For traders, September offers both peril and potential. Pompliano suggests that Bitcoin may be in a consolidation phase, forming a base between $110,000 and $125,000 before setting the stage for a potential Q4 rally. This perspective is echoed by Daan Crypto Trades, who views any significant dip in the coming weeks as a buying opportunity leading into the year’s end. This aligns with recent analyses that suggest Bitcoin is at a ‘make-or-break’ point at $110K.
Market participants are also wary of thin liquidity in September, which can amplify price movements. As systematic funds and discretionary desks recalibrate positions, the path forward remains unpredictable but tantalizing.
Looking Ahead
As August draws to a close, Bitcoin’s path remains shrouded in uncertainty. The interplay between historical trends, macroeconomic developments, and market sentiment creates a complex puzzle. While the notorious September Curse looms, the potential for a bullish surprise can’t be dismissed. Could this be the year that Bitcoin defies its seasonal script? As traders brace for volatility, all eyes will be on upcoming economic data and the Federal Reserve’s next move. The stakes have rarely been higher, and the narrative is far from finished.
Source
This article is based on: Bitcoin And The September Curse: Can This Time Be Different?
Further Reading
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Steve Gregory is a lawyer in the United States who specializes in licensing for cryptocurrency companies and products. Steve began his career as an attorney in 2015 but made the switch to working in cryptocurrency full time shortly after joining the original team at Gemini Trust Company, an early cryptocurrency exchange based in New York City. Steve then joined CEX.io and was able to launch their regulated US-based cryptocurrency. Steve then went on to become the CEO at currency.com when he ran for four years and was able to lead currency.com to being fully acquired in 2025.
