Bitcoin’s long-term bullish fervor—once the rallying cry of crypto enthusiasts—seems to be taking a backseat. As of today, shifts in the options market underscore a sagging confidence in the digital currency’s sustained ascent. The 180-day skew, a metric tracking the volatility distinction between call and put options listed on Deribit, has nosedived to zero. This shift from bullish to neutral sentiment is raising eyebrows among analysts who foresee a potential bear market looming in 2026.
A Worrying Shift in Sentiment
Griffin Ardern, the head of options trading and research at BloFin, paints a picture of caution. “I’ve noticed a rather worrying sign with the recent market pullback,” Ardern remarked. “Bitcoin’s bullish sentiment for the far-month options has vanished, and it is now firmly neutral.” His observations suggest that the options market is signaling a tough road ahead for Bitcoin to carve out a new uptrend anytime soon. As explored in Bitcoin Correction Could Linger for Months, this neutral sentiment might persist, potentially prolonging the current market stagnation.
The market’s memory isn’t short. A similar pivot in sentiment last occurred in January and February of 2022, right before a notable downturn. The seesaw between calls and puts—insurance against price drops versus bullish bets—has flattened out, reflecting a market unsure of its next direction. This neutrality in the 180-day skew might be fueled by structured products selling higher strike call options to eke out more yield. The covered call strategy is gaining traction, nudging call implied volatility below that of puts.
Macro Jitters and Inflation Fears
The broader economic landscape isn’t doing Bitcoin any favors. Last week, Bitcoin tumbled more than 4%, nearly brushing against its former high of $11,965. The catalyst? Core PCE, the Federal Reserve’s favored inflation gauge, ticked upward in June, while disappointing nonfarm payrolls fed economic anxieties. This price drop has nudged short-term skews below zero as traders seek refuge in downside protection through puts. For more on the recent price fluctuations, see our Bitcoin Price Analysis.
Ardern elaborates on the inflationary backdrop: “Although falling auto prices in the last CPI report offset rising prices for other goods, one thing is undeniable: the impulse from the West Coast of the Pacific has reached the East Coast.” Retailers, it seems, are already passing on tariffs and other costs to consumers. While supply chain smoothing efforts are underway, price hikes remain inevitable, if possibly delayed.
JPMorgan analysts echo these concerns, highlighting how President Donald Trump’s tariffs may ramp up inflation in the latter half of the year. “Global core inflation is projected to increase to 3.4% (annualized rate) in the second half of 2025,” they noted, attributing this largely to tariff-induced spikes in the U.S. A rising inflationary tide might challenge the Federal Reserve’s ability to slash rates, despite Trump’s past criticisms of the central bank’s 4.25% rate stance.
What’s Next for Bitcoin?
The ISM non-manufacturing PMI data, due later today, could shine a light on inflationary trends in the service sector—a heavyweight in the U.S. economy. This will be closely followed by the July CPI and PPI figures later in the week, promising more insights into price pressures.
As the market digests these developments, questions remain. How will Bitcoin fare amid these macroeconomic tremors? Will the neutral stance in options translate into broader market skittishness? Analysts are watching closely, wary of what 2026—and the potential bear market it may herald—could hold for the flagship cryptocurrency.
While some experts, like Elliott Wave analysts, still see Bitcoin on track for a $140K milestone this year, the path is fraught with uncertainties. One thing’s for sure: the coming months will test the mettle of even the most ardent Bitcoin believers.
Source
This article is based on: Bitcoin’s Long-Term Bullishness Evaporates From Options Market as Inflation Concern Rises
Further Reading
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Steve Gregory is a lawyer in the United States who specializes in licensing for cryptocurrency companies and products. Steve began his career as an attorney in 2015 but made the switch to working in cryptocurrency full time shortly after joining the original team at Gemini Trust Company, an early cryptocurrency exchange based in New York City. Steve then joined CEX.io and was able to launch their regulated US-based cryptocurrency. Steve then went on to become the CEO at currency.com when he ran for four years and was able to lead currency.com to being fully acquired in 2025.
