Bitcoin might be treading water until October, according to seasoned crypto analyst Josh Olszewicz. In his August 3 video analysis, Olszewicz laid out a stark picture of Bitcoin’s current technical and seasonal landscape, suggesting that the digital currency is caught in a rut with little incentive for traders to jump back in until the final quarter of the year.
The Current Market Malaise
Olszewicz’s analysis kicked off with a reference to last week’s Bollinger Band squeeze—a technical indicator often heralding impending volatility—that unfortunately broke downward. This downturn was spurred by disappointing U.S. jobs numbers, negative ETF flows, and intensifying geopolitical tensions, including unsettling reports of U.S. nuclear submarines near Russian waters. “Markets certainly didn’t like that,” he noted, underscoring the broader unease. As explored in Bitcoin’s Rally Might Be Running on Fumes, analysts have warned of August as a potential turning point for Bitcoin’s momentum.
The ETF flow data painted a grim picture for Bitcoin. While Ethereum enjoyed a boost from positive ETF inflows in July, Bitcoin’s saw a troubling reversal. “Flows, if anything, are what can save us in these two months of doldrums,” he said, pointing to August and September. But the current trend offers little hope of a swift turnaround. “The decision tree got a lot wider after breaking down,” Olszewicz explained, likening the upcoming months to a barren landscape for crypto enthusiasts.
Technical Troubles and a Glimpse at October
From a technical standpoint, Bitcoin is stuck at the yearly pivot around $122,000. “Despite this great-looking chart pattern, we just stopped dead cold at $122,000,” he said. The next significant hurdle stands at $150,000—a psychological, as well as technical, barrier. Yet, there’s a more immediate threat: the ominous prospect of a bearish TK cross on the Ichimoku Cloud, which would trigger a sell signal in his system. “It’s a Pavlovian response,” he stated. “Bearish TK cross, you close your longs.”
Adding to the caution, the Commitment of Traders (COT) data from CME showed a sharp decline in institutional interest on the long side. “Commercials have dropped off a cliff,” warned Olszewicz, hinting at additional headwinds for Bitcoin’s price. Nevertheless, he pointed out that history isn’t entirely bleak. Reflecting on the tumultuous months of August and September 2023, when Bitcoin faced Mt. Gox distributions and German government sell-offs, he noted that the currency rebounded in October following spot ETF approvals. For more insights on the potential duration of this correction, see Bitcoin Correction Could Linger for Months.
A Waiting Game
For those eager to re-enter the market, Olszewicz identified the $117K–$120K range as a potential entry point, provided Bitcoin can reclaim this area in the next couple of weeks. “It’s up to the bulls to hold this just flat for two weeks,” he said optimistically. “It shouldn’t be that hard to do if there are buyers in this market.” Still, he remains cautious: “There’s just nothing to do. It’s in no man’s land at the moment.”
With Bitcoin at a technical impasse, negative flows, weak seasonality, and risk-off signals from wider markets, Olszewicz’s message is clear: patience is key. Stay liquid, keep an eye on October, and avoid forcing trades in this tricky environment. As of now, Bitcoin trades at $114,517, leaving traders to ponder what the coming months might hold.
Source
This article is based on: Top Analyst Says Bitcoin Is Trapped: ‘Nothing To Do Until October’
Further Reading
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Steve Gregory is a lawyer in the United States who specializes in licensing for cryptocurrency companies and products. Steve began his career as an attorney in 2015 but made the switch to working in cryptocurrency full time shortly after joining the original team at Gemini Trust Company, an early cryptocurrency exchange based in New York City. Steve then joined CEX.io and was able to launch their regulated US-based cryptocurrency. Steve then went on to become the CEO at currency.com when he ran for four years and was able to lead currency.com to being fully acquired in 2025.
