Bitcoin’s recent surge appears to be losing steam as the digital currency hovers below the $120,000 mark. According to a report from 10x Research, this slowdown coincides with the onset of August, a historically challenging month for Bitcoin. The report highlights that in the past decade, August has been Bitcoin’s weakest month, with only three years posting gains. Most years have seen losses between 5% and 20%. As explored in Bitcoin’s Rally Might Be Running on Fumes, Analyst Warns of August Turning Point, the seasonal challenges of August have often marked significant turning points for Bitcoin’s price trajectory.
Seasonal Challenges and Capital Inflows
The report from 10x Research draws attention to a significant deceleration in capital inflows into the Bitcoin network. While total cumulative inflows have surpassed the $1 trillion milestone—$206 billion of that arriving in 2025 alone—the 30-day rolling average of these inflows has slipped from $62.4 billion to $59.3 billion. This could herald a consolidation phase, recalling similar trends observed during the peaks of Q1 and Q4 in 2024.
Markus Thielen, co-founder and lead analyst at 10x, noted the paradox faced by the market. “Time is running short, and despite billions in capital inflows from corporate treasuries, the actual price impact has been surprisingly muted,” Thielen remarked. This situation raises questions about whether continued support will be enough to deliver the bullish outcomes many investors anticipate.
Historical Context and Future Projections
Historically, Bitcoin has found itself in a precarious position during August. With only three positive years—2013, 2017, and 2021—coinciding with post-halving bull markets, the odds seem stacked against a repeat performance. Despite these historical challenges, some market participants cling to the hope that 2025 could emulate those successful years. For further insights into how Q3 seasonality might impact Bitcoin’s performance, see Bitcoin bulls aim to chase liquidity at $122K, but Q3 seasonality could stall breakouts.
The report also forecasts a potential dip below the $117,000 level, with key support anticipated at $112,000 and a more substantial floor between $106,000 and $110,000. This technical analysis points to a cautious period ahead, as Bitcoin navigates through these seasonal headwinds.
Implications for the Crypto Market
The current dynamics in Bitcoin’s price action echo broader market trends, where investor sentiment and capital allocation are guided by both historical patterns and speculative forecasts. As the cryptocurrency market matures, factors such as institutional involvement and macroeconomic conditions play crucial roles in shaping price trajectories.
For investors and traders, the upcoming weeks will be pivotal. Will Bitcoin defy historical trends and stabilize above critical support levels? Or will the seasonal slump extend into a more prolonged consolidation? The answers will likely unfold as the market adapts to these evolving conditions.
The narrative surrounding Bitcoin remains as dynamic as ever, with each twist and turn offering insights into the broader digital currency ecosystem. As the market grapples with these challenges, the coming months promise to be a telling period for Bitcoin’s trajectory and the cryptocurrency market at large.
Source
This article is based on: Bitcoin’s Momentum Is Losing Steam as Seasonal Headwinds Loom, 10x Research Says
Further Reading
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Steve Gregory is a lawyer in the United States who specializes in licensing for cryptocurrency companies and products. Steve began his career as an attorney in 2015 but made the switch to working in cryptocurrency full time shortly after joining the original team at Gemini Trust Company, an early cryptocurrency exchange based in New York City. Steve then joined CEX.io and was able to launch their regulated US-based cryptocurrency. Steve then went on to become the CEO at currency.com when he ran for four years and was able to lead currency.com to being fully acquired in 2025.
