An independent market technician known as Kevin, who goes by the handle @KevCapitalTA on X, has declared that the long-awaited “real bull run” in the cryptocurrency market is just beginning. Speaking during a livestream, Kevin highlighted an array of technical signals, macroeconomic indicators, and inter-market correlations that suggest traders may have underestimated the potential rally ahead.
A Deep Dive into Tether Dominance
One of Kevin’s key focal points is the behavior of Tether dominance (USDT.D), representing the share of crypto market capitalization held in the stablecoin Tether. Displaying two long-term USDT.D charts, he described a pattern of decline followed by a “rising channel slash bear flag,” with both the 2024 and current patterns targeting 3.70 percent. Kevin emphasized, “It’s really astonishing how this is kind of attempting to play out,” underscoring that a sustainable rally in risk assets hinges on this level being reached. He highlighted two critical words: “follow through.”
In a broader analysis, Kevin overlaid a macro descending triangle on a two-week USDT.D chart dating back to March 2020. Historical patterns reveal that each time the two-week Stochastic RSI crossed downward, Tether’s dominance fell sharply, correlating with periods of strength in Bitcoin and altcoins. The current downward curl targets the same 3.70 percent level. If this support breaks, Kevin speculates a possible slide toward “the two-percent handle,” signaling a “peak bull market” phase, although he advises caution against such speculation without confirmation. This aligns with recent insights from Standard Chartered’s forecast of Bitcoin’s strongest half ever, which also highlights the potential for significant market shifts.
Hash Ribbons and the Macro Picture
Kevin’s analysis doesn’t stop at Tether. He delves into Bitcoin’s hash-ribbon indicator, which tracks miner capitulation and recovery. Historically, when the weekly “buy” signals have appeared, Bitcoin has seen upside moves between 40 to 100 percent within nine weeks, boasting a “100 percent hit rate” over eight years of back-testing. Kevin links this on-chain data to macroeconomic conditions, citing the real-time inflation gauge Truthflation, currently showing a 1.66 percent reading—below the Federal Reserve’s 2 percent target. Falling import prices, he argues, increase the odds of a shift to easier monetary policy. “If Truthflation stays below 2 percent, you’re going to get the easing you want,” Kevin predicts, suggesting the market will anticipate rate cuts before any official announcement.
Kevin’s thesis also includes altcoin capital rotation. Ethereum’s market-share chart, he observes, is basing at 2019-2020 lows, with positive signals from monthly MACD, Stochastic RSI, and Market Cipher indicators. He notes early reallocations into Ethereum-beta names like Chainlink and Uniswap, which are “up 60 percent” from their accumulation zones. However, he cautions against waiting for central-bank confirmation. “Don’t be the person sitting on the sidelines waiting for Powell to come out saying QT is over,” he advises.
Challenges and Resistance Levels
Turning his attention to Bitcoin, Kevin acknowledges significant resistance ahead. Bitcoin’s price must surpass the March record, break through the $112,000–$116,000 range, and ultimately reach $120,000 before a path to $140,000–$150,000 opens. Similarly, the “total three” index—excluding Bitcoin and Ethereum—needs a daily close above $877 billion and must overcome the yellow-shaded resistance band that has capped rallies five times since February. Only then, Kevin argues, will a new all-time high for the broader alt-basket come into view. As explored in our recent coverage of a Bitcoin market shift, these resistance levels are crucial for understanding the broader market dynamics.
Despite his optimism, Kevin stresses the importance of conviction matched by confirmation. “We need to see real deal price action,” he insists, noting Bitcoin’s daily RSI hasn’t hit the 90-plus “euphoria” zone since 2017. Describing the post-March price moves as “down-trending crappy price action,” he asserts that declaring a full-fledged cycle peak is premature without multiple days of decisive follow-through.
The Road Ahead
As the crypto market stands on the precipice of what Kevin describes as “elite-level price action,” he underscores the time sensitivity of the opportunity. With the halving event behind us and the traditional four-year cycle seemingly entering its final phase, the next five to six months could be pivotal. Whether the cycle ends on schedule depends on the interplay between a potential Federal Reserve pivot and the crypto market’s anticipatory moves.
For now, Kevin’s roadmap remains clear: keep an eye on USDT dominance for a breakdown toward 3.70 percent, watch for successive hash-ribbon buy signals, and demand momentum “follow through” above the identified technical hurdles. If these conditions are met, the rally that many traders thought was already underway might just be the prelude to “the real bull run.” As of this writing, Bitcoin trades at $111,250.
Source
This article is based on: ‘Real’ Crypto Bull Run Just Beginning, Says Analyst—Here’s Why
Further Reading
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Steve Gregory is a lawyer in the United States who specializes in licensing for cryptocurrency companies and products. Steve began his career as an attorney in 2015 but made the switch to working in cryptocurrency full time shortly after joining the original team at Gemini Trust Company, an early cryptocurrency exchange based in New York City. Steve then joined CEX.io and was able to launch their regulated US-based cryptocurrency. Steve then went on to become the CEO at currency.com when he ran for four years and was able to lead currency.com to being fully acquired in 2025.
